Latest Research

Traditional breadth measures have yet to show end-of-cycle thinning of the ranks, but some secondary measures suggest that process may be underway.

The S&P 500 has fully erased its January and February losses, but there’s probably a market message in the fact that it took so long to do so.

It’s been amusing to watch the narrative surrounding Fed policy evolve as the market has rallied.

The S&P 500 finally erased the losses from its nine-day swoon in January and February.

As mania surrounding Apple’s stock was reaching a fever pitch in early 2012, The Leuthold Group wrote a piece entitled, Apple, Just How High Can It Go? To those caught up in the hysteria, the article served as a cautionary reminder.

Both interest rates and investment grade spreads are at a reasonably attractive level to provide downside cushion.

Our Risk Aversion Index reversed higher last month and triggered a new “Higher Risk” signal. We recommend a defensive stance within fixed income.

The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both lagged their 100% equity benchmarks last month in a strong month for stocks.

The increasingly greater attention given to the yield curve by equity investors has prompted us to come up with an equity basket that can track the movement of the yield curve. Overall, it does a reasonably good job of capturing the major moves.

Read this week's Major Trend.

What some EM countries are going through is a classic sequence that can potentially lead to a full-blown EM crisis.

The S&P 500 gained 3% in August creating a fresh all-time high for the index.

While Momentum continues to work overall, the gains have been skewed to the companies trading at the highest valuation multiples. Extremes, based on both price and valuation, have only been greater a handful of times during the period measured.

Read this month's Sector Rankings.

Herein we include an executive summary previewing our forthcoming, in-depth special report on September’s GICS sector changes. The full report, “A Prehistory of the Communication Services Sector” will be distributed soon.

The modest January air pocket went completely unnoticed by the index’s largest firms. Between the market peaks, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon gained 15%, 26%, and 36%, respectively—adding a combined $495 billion to their market values.

After a brief surge in July, the seemingly-cursed Value stocks quickly resumed their roles as underperformers. Our Royal Blue stock lists (institutional favorites) continue to stretch their valuations higher.

Since the end of February—the last month Small Caps were under the historical 3.5% valuation premium—the Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500: +16% versus +8%, respectively.

The second month of Q2 earnings gives us an Up/Down Ratio of 2.08. This is the highest “two-month” reading of the current tax-reform-juiced-earnings era but a bit of a disappointment given our “one-month” figure.

The Attitudinal category neared a new negative extreme for the rally off February lows, while the Intrinsic Value category reached a new extreme for the entire bull market. This combination of overvaluation and overconfidence will eventually be resolved with large market losses…