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The consensus focus all year has been on the boom in U.S. corporate profits.

A bear market will almost always prove to be the catalyst of one or more shifts in long-term market leadership.

The tops of 1990, 2000, and 2007 were all better “telegraphed” by the action of the market itself, than the September 2018 peak, but secondary measures of market internals suggested all summer that the internal trend was in fact deteriorating—and so did the action in low-grade corporate bonds.

The old maxim says that when the bears have Thanksgiving, the bulls have Christmas.

Social media, mobile computing, and digital life-in-the-cloud were the dominant storylines for U.S. stocks over the last five years—reaching the apex of popularity following the early-2016 market low.

The Leuthold Core and Global Portfolios both lagged their respective 100% equity benchmarks during November as markets bounced back after falling into correction territory during October. 

Read this week's Major Trend.

An eleventh hour surge in equity prices salvaged a positive month for the S&P 500.

 Along with market volatility, the composition of Momentum has changed, becoming more defensive and less exposed to cyclicals and commodities.

Since the latest trouble began on October 10th, the S&P 500 has experienced gains or losses in excess of 1% in 20 of the 39 trading days. Prior to October 10th, we saw only eight such days during the six month “melt up.” The Equal Weighted Average broke a four-month relative-performance losing streak to the Cap Weighted measure. Over the past 24 months: Cap Weighted +25.5%; Equal Weighted +18.4%.

Our tech-heavy Royal Blue Growth segment underperformed for the second month in a row. Despite these rare missteps, the group still has a solid YTD return of +8.7%.

Small Caps are selling at a 2% valuation discount to Large Caps. Our Ratio of Ratios moved into the Small Cap P/E discount zone for the first time in 15 months.

Our second Up/Down Ratio of Q3 stands at 1.88—this is the weakest “two-month” reading we’ve seen in the last four quarters. The energy selloff has us thinking about the up/down struggles of the 2014-15 Energy-sector earnings washout.

For the sixth consecutive month, the top-three rated sectors are Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, and Info Tech. Rounding out the bottom end of the rankings are Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples.

The Restaurants industry is another Consumer Discretionary group ranking Attractive via our GS Scores; we purchased it in the Select Industries (SI) portfolio in November. This group has exhibited defensive qualities of late.

Despite the recent signal whipsaws, we have been cautious toward all risky assets and we continue to recommend defense amid higher volatility across all asset classes.

Despite the recent signal whipsaws, we have been cautious toward all risky assets and we continue to recommend defense amid higher volatility across all asset classes.

We created an equity basket that can track the movement of the U.S. 10-year yield. Overall, it does a good job of capturing the major moves.

Liquidity reduction (QT) by global central banks is already showing up in slower M1 growth in all G3 countries. Slower M1 growth has led economic slowdown by about twelve months.

The Economic/Interest Rates/Inflation category was not a big mover on the week, but its relative stability of late has masked a major shift within key indicator groupings. Leading inflation measures have faded sharply, with upgrades across the board in the commodity readings.