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While recession and election risks will dominate in the intermediate term, the overall near-term setting is still positive for risky assets. We maintain our favorable view toward credit.

The ultimate question is whether the Fed’s recent “insurance cuts” are enough to overcome uncertainties about trade talk—and the upcoming election—to avert a recession. We updated our “Slowdown vs. Recession” study to see where we stand now. The bottom line is: It’s too early to rule out a recession.

The top-three-rated sectors are Information Technology, Financials, and Communication Services. Health Care rose from sixth of eleven to the fourth-highest-rated. This is the ninth consecutive month in which Utilities, Materials, and Energy have governed the bottom three positions. The Consumer Staples sector has been occupying the #8 spot since at least July.

We thought we’d get a jump on all the “End of the 2010s” retrospectives you’re sure to see next month. Though not quite yet the official end of the decade, the changing of the “tens” digit definitely has a certain gravitas to it.

Construction Materials moved to an Attractive rating, fueled by growth and price momentum. Surprisingly, digging into the numbers revealed it to have lower beta dynamics. Based on this, we examined the cyclical nature of the group to better understand the impact it may have on overall portfolio cyclicality.

For valuation work, we’ve traditionally favored the 1,200 company Leuthold Small Cap universe over the S&P SmallCap 600 because we get almost a full additional decade of perspective. But figures for the latter shed extra light on just how significant the revaluation in Small Caps has been.

Our call for improved relative performance in Small Caps received another boost in November, when VLT Momentum for the S&P SmallCap 600 confirmed the prior month’s “low-risk” BUY signal on the Russell 2000.

The relative domination of Mega Caps might leave the impression that valuation of the “typical” (or median) Large Cap stock is reasonable. It’s not. The fall rally leaves all major valuation ratios for the median S&P 500 stock in the top decile of the 30-year history, and above the levels prevailing at the September 2018 market high.

We intentionally curtailed our discussion of stock market valuations the last few months to allow the “dead horse” to recover from the thrashings administered in recent years. Now we’re rested, refreshed, and ready to deliver a few more lashes.

As Yogi Berra might have quipped, it’s not just the leading indicators that are lagging… the lagging ones are, too.

The consensus among market pundits is that a U.S. recession will be averted and, as a consequence, domestic stocks remain the best game in town.

Over the nearly two years since the stock market’s “momentum” peak in January 2018, the S&P 500 has gained less than 9%, while the Value Line Arithmetic Composite is unchanged. Mid Caps and Small Caps have made no upside progress during this period and most foreign markets are down.

A way to gain perspective on the present is by trying to view it from the future. Ask yourself, “What are the signs of impending decline, now ignored by investors, that will one day be memorialized by the same investors as the most obvious in retrospect?”   

With optimistic views on capex in late 2017, we built a thematic group of companies that appeared to be potential beneficiaries of higher spending going forward. This group has outperformed the market; but, the capex trend is disappointing and quite concerning.

Select Industries underperformed the S&P 500 in November due to poor industry selection within Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, and Industrials.

Read this week's Major Trend.

During November, the S&P 500 advanced for the third consecutive month, posting a 3.4% gain.

Despite these signs of caution, there are several factors that suggest this expansion still has considerable “Unused Capacity.”

Read this week's Major Trend, 

Doug Ramsey expands on the relationship between Money Supply growth and the Yield Curve.