Slowdown Or Recession? Watch The S&P 500 Index!

Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s second term and the risk of escalating tariffs have shifted market focus from inflation to growth, raising fresh concerns about a potential recession. Our updated Recession Dashboard shows a delicate balance, with risk now slightly above 50%—driven largely by weakness in equities and full-time employment. While some indicators have improved, the market remains the most important signal to watch. A sharp selloff could tip the economy from slowdown into recession territory.