Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

The LEI’s 3.6% six-month annualized loss through September 2006 was the largest decline not followed almost immediately by a recession. This year, the LEI contracted by 3.7% over the six months through June—if a recession is avoided in the current experience, it would be the most misleading signal in the history of the LEI as currently constructed.

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Yield curve action is getting harder to dismiss by the day. But which curve is the most relevant? We tried to answer that question in disciplined fashion in April. To our surprise, the “2s10s” spread that’s ubiquitous in bond-land scored near the bottom of the pack.

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We cringe when we hear the Treasury Secretary or a regional Fed bank president dismiss the possibility of recession on the basis of “low unemployment and strong job gains.” Those measures are as “laggy” as any economic statistics the government publishes.

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We won’t dispute that investors were not genuinely frightened at the June market lows, or that fears have evaporated following a 13% rally in the S&P 500. The distress is understandable: For 26 traumatizing days in 2022, our S&P 500 Normalized P/E multiple traded below its 1957-to-date top decile!

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The theory of “contrary opinion” is important to market analysis, but so is an understanding of its limitations. When investor-sentiment surveys dipped sharply in late January, we warned that the declines (which are usually signals to “buy”) might instead mark the beginning of an important trend change. 

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Many technicians contend that the rebound off June’s lows triggered a bear-market-killing “breadth thrust.” Several gauges we monitor to capture this phenomenon contradict that claim. None has reached a threshold that is extreme enough to qualify as a thrust.

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At the beginning of the year, we liked the chances for the “Donut Portfolio” to break its 10-year losing streak against the S&P 500. As a refresher, the Donut holds six of seven key assets in equal weights. The S&P 500 is excluded—a decision probably only suitable for allocators who are self-employed. 

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We apologize for that terribly misleading teaser of a title, but the bills for the stock-market mania of 2020-2021 are piling up. Inflation is one of them, lately increasing each month as relentlessly as cable TV used to. And for the 10% of households who own 90% of the stocks, market air-pockets such as June’s are like “surprise” medical bills: There’s rarely just one

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As suggested in our June 24th, Chart of the Week, the peak in consumer inflation (+8.6% in May) has likely either occurred or is imminent. Consumers should thank the stock market, which in 2022 has taken up its occasional role as inflation-fighter after the Fed abdicated throughout 2021.

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Key indicators are indeed trending in “pre-recessionary” fashion. Among them is the ISM New Orders Index, which dipped into contraction territory in June while inventories increased. Others are the JOLTS that shows a strong (but weakening) labor market, and unemployment claims—which have ticked up.

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The MTI’s Technical category is still decisively negative at -3, but some of its shorter-term “counter-trend” components look intriguing for the first time in 2022’s entire decline.

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The bear was a mere cub back in March when we examined the historical record of buying S&P 500 dips in the -10% to -12% range. “Blindly” buying them turned out to have mediocre returns, but we illustrated that the positions of various business-cycle indicators could help one determine whether or not catching the proverbial “falling knife” was warranted.

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Based on a short-term perspective, stocks may be ripe for a bounce. However, the S&P 500 has not reached “oversold” territory since early 2016, and it is still a long way from doing so. Of the major indexes, only the Russell 2000 is now positioning to soon claim a “low-risk buy” signal. 

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We previously promised to limit the amount of comparisons to Y2K, but the paths that a number of the usual suspects are taking look more and more like “something we’ve seen before”—in some cases down to the percentage point.

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The enormity of the preceding mania and its vicious unwind have us believing the current bear could unfold over a much lengthier time than is typical. But a combo of time cycles suggests a major low is due any time.

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Remember the good old days (like even a year ago) when one didn’t need to mentally tabulate investment results in inflation-adjusted terms? For a blissful couple of decades, nominal and real returns were so close together that the latter figure seemed irrelevant.

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Most sentiment measures show none of the frothiness that lingered in the months after the Y2K Tech bust. Rather, some exhibit actions reminiscent of early 2008.

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Of the prevailing bullish arguments, the one that strikes us as the weakest is that there’s “too much pessimism.” Much like in 2000, some pundits disingenuously made that claim before the market rolled over. But at this point, with the market now down big and economic numbers suddenly wobbly, the last thing any bull should want is too much pessimism.

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The MTI’s Technical category is still decisively negative at -3, but some of its shorter-term “counter-trend” components look intriguing for the first time in 2022’s entire decline. In particular, we’re watching the behavior of a group of indicators that performed brilliantly near the bull market highs.

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We’re sure that it’s not lost on our readers, but the stock market loves to toy with people. The dollar costs of a decline and the opportunity lost from misplayed manias are bad enough. This particular market, though, seems to take offense when you merely try to label it. Correction or bear? The debate rages on, even though the flagship fund of the lone equity manager who’s a household name is down 75% from its peak—and still raking in money!

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