Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
When is the Last Time You Exclaimed, “AHA!”?
Back in June 1984, after returning from the Market Technicians annual rendezvous, I enthusiastically wrote about a presentation given by Ted Theodore of Morgan Stanley Asset Management on the roles of lateral and vertical thinking in investment management. Here it is, reprinted with Ted’s permission.
View from the North Country
Seventeen inches of snow is one view from the North Country. Read on to find a somewhat less pleasant view, a discussion of the farm crisis, including its implications for common stock investors as well as longer term ramifications.
Inside the Stock Market
February was a healthy consolidation. Higher prices are expected shorter-term and longer-term. The Major Trend Index continues to register powerful readings. The Early Warning Index of intermediate peaks remains positive, but the margin is narrower than a month ago.
Annual Component Changes in Royal Blue Index This Issue
Turnover in the top 60 stocks most heavily owned by institutions is higher than normal. Some of the changes were expected while others were mild surprises.
A Look in the Rearview Mirror
This annual exercise is a critical review of the studies, portfolio shifts, recommendations and market strategies as presented in this publication over the last year or so...both the good and the bad.
View from the North Country
It Feels Good: For the first time in a long time, equities are more heavily weighted than bonds in our Asset Allocation Models… Wanted: Potential High-Tech Survivors: We want to add about five more names to the potential survivor list and are open to suggestions… Pension Fund Shrink: The dramatic changes now taking place in private pension funds and the investment implications thereof.
Inside the Stock Market
The caution flags were taken down in January. This is one of the most powerful looking markets I have seen in my 24 years in the business.
Results of December Year End Bottom Fishing Expedition
The twelve stocks on the list that we especially recommended were up an average of 19%. Once again, this exercise proved to be an effective trading strategy...of course the overall market did help us out a bit this year.
View from the North Country
It is 1985 prediction time. Wall Street Is filled with hot air. We add to this thermal pollution with our own predictions for the 1985 economy, earnings, inflation, deficits, Interest rates, value of the dollar and the stock market.
Dreams & Nightmares
1984's Institutional "dream" portfolio made up of the twenty best performing large cap stock groups was up 20% (excluding dividends) while the aggressive "dream" portfolio was up 33%. The "nightmare" portfolio, constructed of the twenty worst groups was down 49%. See? Things could have been worse…
Early 1985: Getting Cash Comfortable
1985 has started out with a thud.
Inside the Stock Market
Shorter-term, the decline may continue. Our Early Warning Work registered a negative reading Oct. 30 but is now neutral. At least, a trading opportunity may develop soon. Our focus is on the deficit dilemma. The Major Trend Index continues to read positive, but down a bit from last month.
View from the North Country
Not Exactly a Holiday Greeting: I have become even more convinced that the current upside potential in the stock market is quite limited as long as the deficit stalemate prevails…. Throbbing in Minnesota: It is hoped this will explain to clients why the Leuthold Group finds Minnesota such a glorious location for its research operation.
View from the North Country
From a shorter-term tactical standpoint, we have lit the caution light for both the stock market and bond market. However, there are some possible post-election developments that would be cause for changing this somewhat defensive stance and once again becoming totally committed to stocks and bonds.
Inside the Stock Market
The DJIA and S&P were unchanged for the month while the unweighted indices declined one or two percent. For two months in a row now, equities have lagged far behind bonds. There were however some groups and sectors that performed pretty well in October.
Sorry About That…
Several clients have requested information as to the components of the Early Warning Index. We have no secrets....well, not very many, so here are the tools we use to help in identifying intermediate stock market tops.
Inside the Stock Market
From a portfolio performance standpoint, the stock market fizzled out in September. The market averages posted small losses for the month and those who were anticipating another surge on the bright side were sadly disappointed.
What Ails the Stock Market?
After the explosion of two months ago the stock market has gone nowhere. What is wrong with it? Well, I think it may be having some supply/demand problems.
View from the North Country
How High the Moon? How much longer can the strength in the dollar continue?.....Change in Outlook For “Value Stocks? Not really. Several months ago, this publication expressed concern over the growing popularity of “value” investing, reducing portfolio emphasis. Then in this issue we added three new “value” stocks to the portfolio. What’s going on?
View from the North Country
Back to the Basics? We think individual stock analysis is becoming increasingly important… Tax Simplification Coming Soon: The 1984 additions to the tax laws (over 1300 pages) may be the last straw… A Potential Shortage in Treasury Bonds: I know this sounds absurd. However, in the upcoming financing, the Treasury is for the first time offering a 20-year bond that is callable in five years.
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