Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

Small Cap stocks lagged Large Caps in July and August. Possibly getting close to a formal transition in which Large Caps take over the leadership role.

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Current recovery tracking below the performance averages of past bear market recoveries.

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Most are aware of the recently released, relatively weak Q2 2004 ‘NIPA’ profits report.  However, many may not be aware that NIPA earnings were recently revised downward for 2001-2003 periods.

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Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

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Over the past several months, we have been comparing S&P 500 performance for the current election year to the performance averages of all election cycles since 1944.

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Clearly, in recent months,  the public has become much less enthusiastic about the stock market.

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We have been following OTC Bulletin Board trading activity since the fall of 2003. This month, we check in to review June’s activity (one month data lag) in order to see what changes have occurred since our last update.

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Terrorist threats, rising oil prices, the war in Iraq, and upcoming presidential election seem to have taken center stage against a backdrop of impressive corporate earnings momentum.

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Market seems to be moving toward a possible leadership transition from small/mid caps to large caps. Small caps significantly lagged large caps in July, and also now lag YTD.

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Current economic recovery may appear to be lagging, with a GDP growth rate of +3.6% ACR since Q1 2001, but most recent five expansions averaged +4.2% ACR and the big 1990-2000 expansion grew at only 3.4% per year. Economy is still healthy.

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Ten new components inserted into this list of the 99 stocks with the largest institutional ownership. Smallest turnover in four years. Russell also being rebalanced.

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GDP growth of 5.0% projected for 2004. But, fast growing U.S. budget deficit ($458 billion in 2004?) is a significant problem for bonds.

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Based on the typical recovery, we constructed a series of monthly price targets for the S&P 500, going out 24 months from the October 9, 2002 bear market low, and from the March 11, 2003 secondary low.

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Derivative exposure among U.S. commercial banks continues to proliferate at alarming levels.

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U.S. focus equity fund net inflow of $11 billion is estimated for June, reversing May’s light net outflow.

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Steve's Half Time Report: A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2004.

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A total of 38.4 billion Bulletin Board shares exchanged hands in May. This is the lowest level of the year.

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It now seems that the market has settled into a comfort zone— or put differently— a trading range that reflects investors’ current lack of conviction about prospects for the second half of the year.

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May’s late rally extended into June to the delight of market bulls.

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Based on recommendations from the investment services industry, Russell will shift the final day of its index reconstitution process to the last Friday in June, which is June 25 this year, instead of the last day in June.

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