Estimating The Downside
Estimating the Downside - July 2019
The S&P 500 spiked 6.9% higher in June, recouping nearly all the loss incurred in May.
Estimating the Downside - June 2019
The S&P 500 tumbled 6.6% in May, erasing the previous two months’ gains.
Estimating the Downside - May 2019
The S&P 500 turned in its fourth consecutive monthly advance in April, rising 4%.
Estimating the Downside - April 2019
At the end of December, valuations were finally starting to look interesting again as our S&P 500 downside to median estimate was “only” -13%.
Estimating the Downside - March 2019
The S&P 500’s 3% advance in February caused our downside to median estimate to move 3% in the opposite direction.
Estimating the Downside - February 2019
Alas, December’s cheaper valuations may have only been temporary.
Estimating the Downside - January 2019
December’s 9% drop in the S&P 500 made this vignette a lot more interesting.
Estimating the Downside - December 2018
An eleventh hour surge in equity prices salvaged a positive month for the S&P 500.
Estimating the Downside - November 2018
The month of October made this vignette a lot more interesting.
Estimating the Downside - October 2018
The S&P 500 squeaked out its sixth consecutive monthly gain in September.
Estimating the Downside - September 2018
The S&P 500 gained 3% in August creating a fresh all-time high for the index.
Estimating the Downside - August 2018
The S&P 500 got within spitting distance of its January high (price) by gaining 3.6% in July.
Estimating the Downside - July 2018
The S&P 500 squeaked out a monthly gain for June—earning a “turkey” of three positive months for the second quarter.
Estimating the Downside - June 2018
The S&P 500 held on to its early gains and settled 2.4% higher for the month of May.
Estimating the Downside - May 2018
After some price appreciation mid-month, the S&P 500 ended April right where it started.
Estimating the Downside - April 2018
Our monthly stock-slump streak has extended to two.
Estimating the Downside - March 2018
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.
Estimating the Downside - February 2018
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.
Estimating the Downside - January 2018
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.
Estimating the Downside - December 2017
This multi-factor estimate of stock market risk is based on a regression to median stock market levels.
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