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Sep 05 2025
Estimating the Downside

Estimating the Downside - September 2025

  • Sep 5, 2025

The S&P 500 notched its fourth consecutive monthly gain through August, advancing 2%. Over that span, our downside estimate for the index to return to its historical median level (1995-forward) widened from -24% to -32%.

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About The Author

Phil Segner / Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil Segner Sr. Research Analyst & Co-Portfolio Manager

Phil is a Co-Portfolio Manager and Sr. Research Analyst at The Leuthold Group, LLC. He is a member of the asset allocation and investment committees and is a major contributor to the firm's research publications.

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