Green Book April 2026
Conditionally Contrarian
Sentiment is generally a contrarian indicator, i.e., extreme optimism foretells lower future returns and vice versa. Yet, there are backdrops in which enthusiastic sentiment coexists with ongoing equity gains.
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Featured Articles
Cap And Trap
Private credit has dominated headlines for all the wrong reasons, devastating alternative asset managers linked to that space. When we see a group of stocks with 30%+ losses in a matter of months, our contrarian “Spidey-Sense” starts to tingle, and we begin to wonder if a bargain is in the making.
Bobbing For AAPL
There’s been a major return benefit for selling AAPL when it hits a 7% SPX weight and repurchasing after reverting back to a 6% weight. We tracked three options to switch into after a 7% “sell” trigger, holding till a new buy is flagged, and each crushed the approach of holding AAPL through the rotation.
A Bottom-Up Case For Energy Stocks
Stocks in the Energy sector have massively outperformed since the Iran war onset; yet prior to that, the fundamentals in this space had already strengthened and the oil price surge is an extra bonus. Expectations have remained low while positive surprises have been delivered, making for a favorable setup.
Broken Up By War—Changing Relationships In A Changing World
For much of the last year, we’ve noted markets have persistently underpriced geopolitical risk, treating it like background noise versus a real threat. Recent events have forced a correction to that stance. Oil, in turn, has reclaimed its function as a geopolitical risk hedge—a role it had abandoned for a long time.
Everyday High Prices
Walmart’s performance and expanding P/E ratio contradicts the Staples sector’s less dynamic results, so either Walmart is commanding a growth premium, or investors are applying different valuation standards across the sector. Either way, count us as skeptical.
The Price Of Fear
The evolution of BDC asset values may shed new light on how much of the bear market in alternative asset management stocks is due to genuine economic risk and how much is fueled by an over-reaction to the software and redemption scare.
Conditionally Contrarian
Sentiment is generally a contrarian indicator, i.e., extreme optimism foretells lower future returns and vice versa. Yet, there are backdrops in which enthusiastic sentiment coexists with ongoing equity gains.
Estimating The Downside For The S&P 500
The index had its worst month since the tariff tantrum one year ago. Yet, a sharp rally on the last trading day took some of the sting out of the March loss; downside estimates narrowed by a similar amount.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Climbing Higher
- Valuations: Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
- Leadership Dynamics: Growth/Value/Cyclical
- Other Market Undercurrents
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Cap And Trap
Private credit has dominated headlines for all the wrong reasons, devastating alternative asset managers linked to that space. When we see a group of stocks with 30%+ losses in a matter of months, our contrarian “Spidey-Sense” starts to tingle, and we begin to wonder if a bargain is in the making.
Bobbing For AAPL
There’s been a major return benefit for selling AAPL when it hits a 7% SPX weight and repurchasing after reverting back to a 6% weight. We tracked three options to switch into after a 7% “sell” trigger, holding till a new buy is flagged, and each crushed the approach of holding AAPL through the rotation.
A Bottom-Up Case For Energy Stocks
Stocks in the Energy sector have massively outperformed since the Iran war onset; yet prior to that, the fundamentals in this space had already strengthened and the oil price surge is an extra bonus. Expectations have remained low while positive surprises have been delivered, making for a favorable setup.
Broken Up By War—Changing Relationships In A Changing World
For much of the last year, we’ve noted markets have persistently underpriced geopolitical risk, treating it like background noise versus a real threat. Recent events have forced a correction to that stance. Oil, in turn, has reclaimed its function as a geopolitical risk hedge—a role it had abandoned for a long time.
Everyday High Prices
Walmart’s performance and expanding P/E ratio contradicts the Staples sector’s less dynamic results, so either Walmart is commanding a growth premium, or investors are applying different valuation standards across the sector. Either way, count us as skeptical.
The Price Of Fear
The evolution of BDC asset values may shed new light on how much of the bear market in alternative asset management stocks is due to genuine economic risk and how much is fueled by an over-reaction to the software and redemption scare.
Conditionally Contrarian
Sentiment is generally a contrarian indicator, i.e., extreme optimism foretells lower future returns and vice versa. Yet, there are backdrops in which enthusiastic sentiment coexists with ongoing equity gains.
Estimating The Downside For The S&P 500
The index had its worst month since the tariff tantrum one year ago. Yet, a sharp rally on the last trading day took some of the sting out of the March loss; downside estimates narrowed by a similar amount.
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Climbing Higher
- Valuations: Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
- Leadership Dynamics: Growth/Value/Cyclical
- Other Market Undercurrents