Green Book November 2025
The Downside Of A Two-Time Hook-Up
In late September, our Very Long Term Momentum algorithm reversed higher after being on a downward track since 2024. There have been just ten other cases of this since 1957, and it has often been a stock market trap. Not an official signal, but worth watching.
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Featured Articles
A Reason For The Season?
November ushers in a tropical breeze for risk-seeking investors. The six-month stretch from November through April has proven to be an exceptionally profitable time, particularly for those exposed to factors, such as size, value, and volatility.
The Illusion Of Breadth
S&P 500 performance is being propelled by its disproportionate concentration in the Magnificent Seven stocks, while the Russell 2000’s leadership is powered by unprofitable small caps, thereby resulting in breadth of quantity, not quality.
Another Loan Bites The Dust—Macro Implications Of Bank Stocks
There is consistent evidence that bank stocks behave like macro proxies. Both domestically and in other major economies across the globe, there is a strong and steady link between lending conditions and subsequent economic activity.
The Year Of AANA?
The return landscape has been good for a passive “own-everything” asset allocation policy. Our hypothetical “All Asset No Authority” (AANA) portfolio has seen a few more cylinders firing this year. In fact, YTD, none of AANA’s asset class constituents have negative performance.
Regional Bank Fright Fest
Halloween’s eerie vibe came early for investors in regional banks, as there were several reports of large and disturbing credit issues on October 16th—a frightful day that drove the group to a cumulative 14.3% shortfall versus the S&P 500.
What All-Time High? A Value And Quality Perspective
As AI-growth heavyweights keep pushing the S&P 500 to new all-time highs, value investors have been completely left out. Usually, buying high-quality value names is the best defense, but that has been a disaster in the current cycle. Junky value is substantially outpacing quality value.
Active/Passive Update Q3-2025
Q3 was characterized by two traits that typically favor a passive investment process while creating a drag for active portfolios: Convincing leadership of growth stocks and high absolute returns.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The Illusion Of Breadth
- A Reason For The Season?
- What All-Time High? A Value And Quality Perspective
- The Year Of AANA?
- The Downside Of A Two-Time Hook-Up
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Another Loan Bites The Dust—Macro Implications Of Bank Stocks
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower-Risk” Signal
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
A Reason For The Season?
November ushers in a tropical breeze for risk-seeking investors. The six-month stretch from November through April has proven to be an exceptionally profitable time, particularly for those exposed to factors, such as size, value, and volatility.
The Illusion Of Breadth
S&P 500 performance is being propelled by its disproportionate concentration in the Magnificent Seven stocks, while the Russell 2000’s leadership is powered by unprofitable small caps, thereby resulting in breadth of quantity, not quality.
Another Loan Bites The Dust—Macro Implications Of Bank Stocks
There is consistent evidence that bank stocks behave like macro proxies. Both domestically and in other major economies across the globe, there is a strong and steady link between lending conditions and subsequent economic activity.
The Year Of AANA?
The return landscape has been good for a passive “own-everything” asset allocation policy. Our hypothetical “All Asset No Authority” (AANA) portfolio has seen a few more cylinders firing this year. In fact, YTD, none of AANA’s asset class constituents have negative performance.
Regional Bank Fright Fest
Halloween’s eerie vibe came early for investors in regional banks, as there were several reports of large and disturbing credit issues on October 16th—a frightful day that drove the group to a cumulative 14.3% shortfall versus the S&P 500.
What All-Time High? A Value And Quality Perspective
As AI-growth heavyweights keep pushing the S&P 500 to new all-time highs, value investors have been completely left out. Usually, buying high-quality value names is the best defense, but that has been a disaster in the current cycle. Junky value is substantially outpacing quality value.
Active/Passive Update Q3-2025
Q3 was characterized by two traits that typically favor a passive investment process while creating a drag for active portfolios: Convincing leadership of growth stocks and high absolute returns.
Stock Market
- The Illusion Of Breadth
- A Reason For The Season?
- What All-Time High? A Value And Quality Perspective
- The Year Of AANA?
- The Downside Of A Two-Time Hook-Up
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Another Loan Bites The Dust—Macro Implications Of Bank Stocks
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower-Risk” Signal