Green Book December 2025
S&P 500 Goes Streaking
The index’s monthly win streak looked as dead as Disco as November progressed. Then, SPX rallied to close the month with its best five-day run since mid-May to attain a 7th consecutive monthly win. In the majority of prior cases, the index proceeded to post above average results for the next three- and six-month periods.
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Featured Articles
Visualizing Exuberance
We examine several baskets of equities focused on distinctively speculative, high-risk market segments. Such traits are apt to be qualities investors try to avoid—but when animal spirits are running high, they can generate prodigious returns during short but powerful speculative outbursts.
The Decades They Are A-Changin’
More than halfway through the decade, a lot of things have changed. We revisit several decade-defining charts from the 2010s and consider where these long-running trends stand today.
Valuations: Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
It’s been five long years since Small Caps had their last sustained relative-strength rally: From November 2020 through March 2021, the S&P 600 gained an astounding 51% versus the S&P 500’s +22%.
Estimating the Downside - December 2025
The index gained 5% in the last five trading days of November to eke out a minuscule gain—but it was enough to score its seventh-consecutive monthly advance. The S&P 500 is back within spitting distance of its all-time high set in late October.
S&P 500 Earnings Waterfall 3Q 2025
The third quarter of 2025 produced the strongest earnings results in recent memory, paced by revenue gains in all eleven S&P 500 sectors. Sales registered 8.7% growth over 3Q24, leading to improvements in profit margins across the income statement.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Don’t Stop Believin’... In Fed Liquidity
- Wellness Month
- Our Most Contrarian Group Ideas
- S&P 500 Goes Streaking
- The Life Of A Bull
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Gaining Steam
- Valuations: Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
- Leadership Dynamics: Growth/Value/Cyclical
- Other Market Undercurrents
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Visualizing Exuberance
We examine several baskets of equities focused on distinctively speculative, high-risk market segments. Such traits are apt to be qualities investors try to avoid—but when animal spirits are running high, they can generate prodigious returns during short but powerful speculative outbursts.
The Decades They Are A-Changin’
More than halfway through the decade, a lot of things have changed. We revisit several decade-defining charts from the 2010s and consider where these long-running trends stand today.
Valuations: Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
It’s been five long years since Small Caps had their last sustained relative-strength rally: From November 2020 through March 2021, the S&P 600 gained an astounding 51% versus the S&P 500’s +22%.
Estimating the Downside - December 2025
The index gained 5% in the last five trading days of November to eke out a minuscule gain—but it was enough to score its seventh-consecutive monthly advance. The S&P 500 is back within spitting distance of its all-time high set in late October.
S&P 500 Earnings Waterfall 3Q 2025
The third quarter of 2025 produced the strongest earnings results in recent memory, paced by revenue gains in all eleven S&P 500 sectors. Sales registered 8.7% growth over 3Q24, leading to improvements in profit margins across the income statement.
Stock Market
- Don’t Stop Believin’... In Fed Liquidity
- Wellness Month
- Our Most Contrarian Group Ideas
- S&P 500 Goes Streaking
- The Life Of A Bull
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
- Gaining Steam
- Valuations: Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
- Leadership Dynamics: Growth/Value/Cyclical
- Other Market Undercurrents