Green Book January 2024
The Big Fundamental
Remember the nickname for retired San Antonio Spurs star Tim Duncan? “The Big Fundamental.” The stock market itself is a big fundamental—and that’s probably truer now than in past cycles, since market capitalization relative to U.S. GDP is larger today—with the exception being the most extreme phase of the post-COVID mania.
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Featured Articles
Consumers Ready To Crack?
There are reports that 40% with student loans did not make an initial payment when installments resumed in October. Meanwhile, among seniors aged 65-79, the share with a mortgage rose to 41% in 2022, up from 24% in 1989, while the percentage of those aged 80+ with a mortgage increased from 3% to 31% during the same time!
2024 Time Cycles—Watch Politics & Geopolitics
Given how many potential political and geopolitical hotspots there are at present, it might be a bit presumptuous to think 2024 will be a typical year. Politics and geopolitics are the most underpriced risk for 2024.
Research Preview: The Price Might Be Right
Whenever a basket of stocks with the market heft of the Magnificent 7 shows a price gain of 111% in a single year, the valuation alarm-bells ring loud. Is this gain the result of a mania for all things AI, or could the move be justified by equally magnificent fundamentals?
2023 Asset Allocation Review
In the theme that’s reminiscent of all but a couple of the last 15 years, the optimal strategy for equity managers and asset allocators in 2023 was the same: Buy the S&P 500, and then hit the links.
Factor Performance And Interest Rates
Speculating on the link between style performance and interest rates is a favorite pastime of factor aficionados, but 2023 provided a real-time laboratory to evaluate those ideas. We examined factor returns during the interest rate swings to uncover some empirical insights into this important relationship.
Leuthold’s Industry Group “Dreams” And “Nightmares”—Annual Update
Over the entire history of this study, the momentum plays of our “Dreams” and “Nightmares” have worked both ways. This was not the case in 2023, however, as the fortunes for both groups (based on 2022 performance) U-turned in a considerable way.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The Big Fundamental
- Saved By The Wealth Effect?
- Consumers Ready To Crack?
- Technicals: Thrusting And Streaking!
- How The Rally Stacks Up
- Checking In On “Median” Valuations
- 2024 Time Cycles: Less Bullish Than Last Year
- 2023 Asset Allocation Review
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
- Leuthold Portfolios Update - December 2023
- Leuthold’s Industry Group “Dreams” And “Nightmares”—Annual Update
Quant
Market Internals
- Earnings Ratio in Depressing Range
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Consumers Ready To Crack?
There are reports that 40% with student loans did not make an initial payment when installments resumed in October. Meanwhile, among seniors aged 65-79, the share with a mortgage rose to 41% in 2022, up from 24% in 1989, while the percentage of those aged 80+ with a mortgage increased from 3% to 31% during the same time!
2024 Time Cycles—Watch Politics & Geopolitics
Given how many potential political and geopolitical hotspots there are at present, it might be a bit presumptuous to think 2024 will be a typical year. Politics and geopolitics are the most underpriced risk for 2024.
Research Preview: The Price Might Be Right
Whenever a basket of stocks with the market heft of the Magnificent 7 shows a price gain of 111% in a single year, the valuation alarm-bells ring loud. Is this gain the result of a mania for all things AI, or could the move be justified by equally magnificent fundamentals?
2023 Asset Allocation Review
In the theme that’s reminiscent of all but a couple of the last 15 years, the optimal strategy for equity managers and asset allocators in 2023 was the same: Buy the S&P 500, and then hit the links.
Factor Performance And Interest Rates
Speculating on the link between style performance and interest rates is a favorite pastime of factor aficionados, but 2023 provided a real-time laboratory to evaluate those ideas. We examined factor returns during the interest rate swings to uncover some empirical insights into this important relationship.
Leuthold’s Industry Group “Dreams” And “Nightmares”—Annual Update
Over the entire history of this study, the momentum plays of our “Dreams” and “Nightmares” have worked both ways. This was not the case in 2023, however, as the fortunes for both groups (based on 2022 performance) U-turned in a considerable way.
Stock Market
- The Big Fundamental
- Saved By The Wealth Effect?
- Consumers Ready To Crack?
- Technicals: Thrusting And Streaking!
- How The Rally Stacks Up
- Checking In On “Median” Valuations
- 2024 Time Cycles: Less Bullish Than Last Year
- 2023 Asset Allocation Review
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
- Leuthold Portfolios Update - December 2023
- Leuthold’s Industry Group “Dreams” And “Nightmares”—Annual Update
Quant
Market Internals
- Earnings Ratio in Depressing Range
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- Additional Factors