Green Book December 2024
Novembers To Remember
Big November gains in 2022 and 2023 were clearly kick-off events, while the more speculative backdrop of late 2024 makes the latest November jump look more like a blow-off. Nonetheless, market internals do not reflect a bull that’s ready to top out: The S&P 500 simply has too much companionship at recent highs, including cyclical stocks, financials, and small caps.
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Featured Articles
The Bull Markets In “P/E” And “E”
Sharply rising projections for EPS are a reason this market doesn’t seem quite as bubbly as its price tag suggests. Barring a sudden collapse, 2024 will be just the third year in which forward earnings estimates and the forward P/E multiple both increase by more than 10%.
Baby Steps Higher
With the second month of Q3 reporting complete, the ratio of up-earnings to down-earnings was an improvement over the same period last quarter and the highest “two-month” figure in two years. Still, this vignette is hovering in the grey zone of results that aren’t deemed recessionary but are decidedly below average.
S&P 500 Earnings Waterfall 3Q24
Revenues progressed for 75% of S&P 500 companies reporting, but only 60% of those realized gains in operating income. Pretax and net income continued to drop, such that headway in the bottom-line was positive for barely more than half of the firms.
Leuthold Portfolios Update - November 2024
Financials had another boost as the sector should thrive under the new administration. Among others, less regulatory oversight and weaker capital controls are apt to improve profitability. Within Info Tech, several industries that contain top AI-beneficiaries have deteriorated; both Semiconductors and Tech Hardware Storage & Peripherals are now rated Unattractive.
Post-Election Factor Performance
The election gave small caps and Financials a boost, but didn’t help value stocks as hoped. Momentum and growth were the main winners within large caps, while no factors worked well among small caps, where more speculative names benefited.
Estimating the Downside - December 2024
The S&P 500 returned to its winning ways in November, logging its largest monthly advance (+5.7%) in a year; over the last 13 months, the index has a price gain of 44%.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Novembers To Remember
- “AI” Didn’t Write This, But Could Have
- Speculation Vs. Investing
- Would A Recession Blindside The Market?
- “Wealth-flationary” Pressures?
- The Bull Markets In “P/E” And “E”
- Tabulating The Gains
- Foreign Stocks: A Half-Off Sale?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Baby Steps Higher
- Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
- Leadership Dynamics: Growth/Value/Cyclical
- Other Market Undercurrents
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
The Bull Markets In “P/E” And “E”
Sharply rising projections for EPS are a reason this market doesn’t seem quite as bubbly as its price tag suggests. Barring a sudden collapse, 2024 will be just the third year in which forward earnings estimates and the forward P/E multiple both increase by more than 10%.
Baby Steps Higher
With the second month of Q3 reporting complete, the ratio of up-earnings to down-earnings was an improvement over the same period last quarter and the highest “two-month” figure in two years. Still, this vignette is hovering in the grey zone of results that aren’t deemed recessionary but are decidedly below average.
S&P 500 Earnings Waterfall 3Q24
Revenues progressed for 75% of S&P 500 companies reporting, but only 60% of those realized gains in operating income. Pretax and net income continued to drop, such that headway in the bottom-line was positive for barely more than half of the firms.
Leuthold Portfolios Update - November 2024
Financials had another boost as the sector should thrive under the new administration. Among others, less regulatory oversight and weaker capital controls are apt to improve profitability. Within Info Tech, several industries that contain top AI-beneficiaries have deteriorated; both Semiconductors and Tech Hardware Storage & Peripherals are now rated Unattractive.
Post-Election Factor Performance
The election gave small caps and Financials a boost, but didn’t help value stocks as hoped. Momentum and growth were the main winners within large caps, while no factors worked well among small caps, where more speculative names benefited.
Estimating the Downside - December 2024
The S&P 500 returned to its winning ways in November, logging its largest monthly advance (+5.7%) in a year; over the last 13 months, the index has a price gain of 44%.
Stock Market
- Novembers To Remember
- “AI” Didn’t Write This, But Could Have
- Speculation Vs. Investing
- Would A Recession Blindside The Market?
- “Wealth-flationary” Pressures?
- The Bull Markets In “P/E” And “E”
- Tabulating The Gains
- Foreign Stocks: A Half-Off Sale?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
The Leuthold Refresh
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Baby Steps Higher
- Small Cap Vs. Large Cap
- Leadership Dynamics: Growth/Value/Cyclical
- Other Market Undercurrents