Green Book September 2021
A Good Thing To Have In Reserve
It seems investors care mostly that the authorities have fiercely defended the S&P 500’s status as the World’s Reserve IndexTM. A decade of QE should have taught us that when the Fed conducts a decade’s worth of QE in little more than a year, U.S. Large Cap stocks benefit the most.
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Featured Articles
The Stock Market IS A “Fundamental”
The impact of U.S. stock-market “hegemony” extends far beyond currency markets. We believe the mania has progressed to the point where the stock market itself will shape the intermediate-term and even long-term fortunes of the U.S. economy more than it ever has before.
A Good Thing To Have In Reserve
It seems investors care mostly that the authorities have fiercely defended the S&P 500’s status as the World’s Reserve IndexTM. A decade of QE should have taught us that when the Fed conducts a decade’s worth of QE in little more than a year, U.S. Large Cap stocks benefit the most.
Digging Into Materials
If there are shortages, bottlenecks, and commodity inflation everywhere, why is the rating for the Materials sector so uninspiring? Although valuations are compelling for Materials groups, the overall decline in the rankings can be traced to EPS revisions and macro influences, like the U.S. dollar and low rates.
Let Us Add To The Bullish Cacophony
It’s been a heck of a stock market year, and there are still four months left. What else could go right? Monetary conditions, for one thing—at least as proxied by our Dow Bond Oscillator (DBO).
Rolling In Cash & Spending It In Style
We take a look at how the market rewards different uses for cash and what drives management decisions about the use of cash over time. The focus here is on the three main cash applications: investment (Capex and R&D), return of cash (via buybacks and dividends), and M&A spending.
Not Overthinking Small Caps
There are some positive cyclical influences for Small Caps, like higher inflation and deeply negative real interest rates. But in our minds, the valuation spread versus Large Caps is more important.
A Lost Decade For Emerging Markets
Fading momentum in GDP growth, sizable dislocation of corporate EPS in the midst of an expansion, and U.S.-dollar weakness have all made EM equity investments inferior to U.S. stocks over the last decade.
Financials Growing Up
Financials have dramatically improved their Growth profile; a move that makes the traditionally value-oriented sector one of the most well-rounded segments of the equity market.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- A Good Thing To Have In Reserve
- Reading The Short-Term Tea Leaves
- Let Us Add To The Bullish Cacophony
- The Stock Market IS A “Fundamental”
- Technology Stocks: Dance Like Nobody’s Watching
- What’s Your “Number?”
- Not Overthinking Small Caps
- A Lost Decade For Emerging Markets
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
The Stock Market IS A “Fundamental”
The impact of U.S. stock-market “hegemony” extends far beyond currency markets. We believe the mania has progressed to the point where the stock market itself will shape the intermediate-term and even long-term fortunes of the U.S. economy more than it ever has before.
A Good Thing To Have In Reserve
It seems investors care mostly that the authorities have fiercely defended the S&P 500’s status as the World’s Reserve IndexTM. A decade of QE should have taught us that when the Fed conducts a decade’s worth of QE in little more than a year, U.S. Large Cap stocks benefit the most.
Digging Into Materials
If there are shortages, bottlenecks, and commodity inflation everywhere, why is the rating for the Materials sector so uninspiring? Although valuations are compelling for Materials groups, the overall decline in the rankings can be traced to EPS revisions and macro influences, like the U.S. dollar and low rates.
Let Us Add To The Bullish Cacophony
It’s been a heck of a stock market year, and there are still four months left. What else could go right? Monetary conditions, for one thing—at least as proxied by our Dow Bond Oscillator (DBO).
Rolling In Cash & Spending It In Style
We take a look at how the market rewards different uses for cash and what drives management decisions about the use of cash over time. The focus here is on the three main cash applications: investment (Capex and R&D), return of cash (via buybacks and dividends), and M&A spending.
Not Overthinking Small Caps
There are some positive cyclical influences for Small Caps, like higher inflation and deeply negative real interest rates. But in our minds, the valuation spread versus Large Caps is more important.
A Lost Decade For Emerging Markets
Fading momentum in GDP growth, sizable dislocation of corporate EPS in the midst of an expansion, and U.S.-dollar weakness have all made EM equity investments inferior to U.S. stocks over the last decade.
Financials Growing Up
Financials have dramatically improved their Growth profile; a move that makes the traditionally value-oriented sector one of the most well-rounded segments of the equity market.
Stock Market
- A Good Thing To Have In Reserve
- Reading The Short-Term Tea Leaves
- Let Us Add To The Bullish Cacophony
- The Stock Market IS A “Fundamental”
- Technology Stocks: Dance Like Nobody’s Watching
- What’s Your “Number?”
- Not Overthinking Small Caps
- A Lost Decade For Emerging Markets