Green Book May 2021
Young Bull, Old Threat
By our count, the current bull market is the 13th of the postwar period. The 88% gain achieved by the S&P 500 in less than 14 months already places this bull sixth in terms of cumulative gains.
We considered it a hindrance that this bull commenced from higher valuation levels than any other in history. Instead, they seem to have provided a head-start.
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter
Leuthold Advisors Newsletter subscriptions include a no-obligation 14-day trial. Cancel at any time before the 14 days are over and you will not be billed.
Subscribe nowLogin
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Featured Articles
Inflation Watch
April ISM readings, both for Manufacturing and Services, were hot across the board. That’s good news for a still-recovering Main Street, but it manifested in ways that have frequently caused problems for a famous Street located in Lower Manhattan.
Time For “Timing?”
Valuations aren’t known as effective timing tools, but they can certainly help one decide when an attempt at timing may be appropriate. And if that time isn’t now, then when?
Research Preview: Global Small Caps
U.S. small caps have posted blockbuster price gains coming off the pandemic bear-market low in March 2020. We were curious to see how international small caps have performed since then, and launched this project to learn how this asset class has recently behaved in other regions.
GS Scores Identify Successful Equity Themes In 2021
The Group Selection (GS) Scores are off to a fantastic start in 2021, and the Select Industries strategy, which takes its cues from the Attractive range, has taken full advantage.
To Whom This May Concern
Economic numbers were red hot in April but a funny thing happened when the awesome data rolled in—bond yields actually went lower. Expectations have trended upward, and “whisper” numbers have set the bars even higher.
Sizing Up The Profit Recovery
We don’t make much use of “Forward” EPS for the S&P 500 because analyst forecasts have tended to be hopelessly optimistic. But if their short-term projections are on target, when numbers for the current quarter are reported, 12-month trailing GAAP EPS will exceed the $139.47 pre-COVID peak.
Housing-Related Groups Top The Rankings
Housing-related groups have catapulted to the very top of our rankings. Several of these are among the top-ten performers of our 120-group universe. Despite the strong returns for these industries, our GS Scores indicate that this theme has even more room to run.
“Surprise” Or “No Surprise?”
Navigating the investment landscape over the past year has been a journey full of surprises. No data other than “earnings surprises” can better demonstrate how unpredictable companies’ financial performance has become.
New Era Valuations?
We understand the various rationale for the upward shift in equity valuations seen over the last quarter century or so. Unfortunately, wiping away all market history prior to 1995 does not make stock valuations appear significantly less inflated.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Young Bull, Old Threat
- Stock Market Observations
- Sizing Up The Profit Recovery
- New Era Valuations?
- How Much Leverage Is Too Much?
- Inflation Watch
- The “Tape” Doesn’t Always “Tell All”
- Time For “Timing?”
- Two More Reasons For Yields To Rise
- “Surprise” Or “No Surprise?”
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- GS Scores Identify Successful Equity Themes In 2021
- Housing-Related Groups Top The Rankings
- Sector Rankings
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Inflation Watch
April ISM readings, both for Manufacturing and Services, were hot across the board. That’s good news for a still-recovering Main Street, but it manifested in ways that have frequently caused problems for a famous Street located in Lower Manhattan.
Time For “Timing?”
Valuations aren’t known as effective timing tools, but they can certainly help one decide when an attempt at timing may be appropriate. And if that time isn’t now, then when?
Research Preview: Global Small Caps
U.S. small caps have posted blockbuster price gains coming off the pandemic bear-market low in March 2020. We were curious to see how international small caps have performed since then, and launched this project to learn how this asset class has recently behaved in other regions.
GS Scores Identify Successful Equity Themes In 2021
The Group Selection (GS) Scores are off to a fantastic start in 2021, and the Select Industries strategy, which takes its cues from the Attractive range, has taken full advantage.
To Whom This May Concern
Economic numbers were red hot in April but a funny thing happened when the awesome data rolled in—bond yields actually went lower. Expectations have trended upward, and “whisper” numbers have set the bars even higher.
Sizing Up The Profit Recovery
We don’t make much use of “Forward” EPS for the S&P 500 because analyst forecasts have tended to be hopelessly optimistic. But if their short-term projections are on target, when numbers for the current quarter are reported, 12-month trailing GAAP EPS will exceed the $139.47 pre-COVID peak.
Housing-Related Groups Top The Rankings
Housing-related groups have catapulted to the very top of our rankings. Several of these are among the top-ten performers of our 120-group universe. Despite the strong returns for these industries, our GS Scores indicate that this theme has even more room to run.
“Surprise” Or “No Surprise?”
Navigating the investment landscape over the past year has been a journey full of surprises. No data other than “earnings surprises” can better demonstrate how unpredictable companies’ financial performance has become.
New Era Valuations?
We understand the various rationale for the upward shift in equity valuations seen over the last quarter century or so. Unfortunately, wiping away all market history prior to 1995 does not make stock valuations appear significantly less inflated.
Stock Market
- Young Bull, Old Threat
- Stock Market Observations
- Sizing Up The Profit Recovery
- New Era Valuations?
- How Much Leverage Is Too Much?
- Inflation Watch
- The “Tape” Doesn’t Always “Tell All”
- Time For “Timing?”
- Two More Reasons For Yields To Rise
- “Surprise” Or “No Surprise?”
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- GS Scores Identify Successful Equity Themes In 2021
- Housing-Related Groups Top The Rankings
- Sector Rankings