Green Book February 2020
The Alternate Ending?
Bears were an endangered species throughout 2018, just as they are now. Yet that year will forever be remembered as the one in which the Fed nearly killed the bull market with a string of rate hikes. (Could it have been any more obvious?) And after last year’s spectacularly successful pivot, the thinking is that future rate hikes are the bull market’s only threat.
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Featured Articles
The Alternate Ending?
After last year’s spectacularly successful pivot following the December 2018 plunge, the thinking is that future rate hikes are the bull market’s only threat. Perhaps that will be the case; the belief is certainly well-supported by postwar U.S. economic history, but it also reveals a shocking lapse in short-term memory.
Coronavirus—An Accelerator, Not A Catalyst
Chinese and Hong Kong markets are currently following the same script as seen during the SARS outbreak, but we caution against using S&P 500 performance as a guide for what is likely to happen this time around.
A Storied Bubble’s Pearl Anniversary
The decade of the teens has given way to the decade of the twenties and “year in review” retrospectives are in the books, but as the calendar’s last digit rolls from 9 to 0 we consider one more anniversary worth remembering.
Stocks And The U.S. Presidential Election Cycle
Our equity research typically focuses at the sector and industry group levels, thus, in this analysis, we drill down and explore the presidential effect on a more granular level to see what interesting equity trends may have transpired in the past cycles.
Parabolic Prescience?
Market bulls rightly note that in the late 1990s, dozens of stocks exhibited Tesla-like action before the fun eventually came to an end. But we’d remind investors that the last few years have featured other “busted parabolics,” and all of them were followed in short order by broader market troubles.
Tesla: A Short Story
The common, and easy reason given for the recent Tesla move is a short squeeze. We don’t deny that existing shorts are getting “squeezed,” but that’s a result, not a cause, of the recent move. The more likely instigator is speculator FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
Index Rebalance Effect—A Disappearing Anomaly?
In the past we’ve made the observation that adding/deleting stocks to/from a popular index can have a profound impact on the target stocks’ short-term trading volume and performance.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Index Rebalance Effect—A Disappearing Anomaly?
- The Alternate Ending?
- Superhuman Feats Got Us Here
- Liquidity Overflow!
- Parabolic Prescience?
- Keep Some Powder Dry
- EM Equity Purgatory
- Energy: Kicking A Dog When It’s Down
- Central Planning Makes A Comeback
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
The Alternate Ending?
After last year’s spectacularly successful pivot following the December 2018 plunge, the thinking is that future rate hikes are the bull market’s only threat. Perhaps that will be the case; the belief is certainly well-supported by postwar U.S. economic history, but it also reveals a shocking lapse in short-term memory.
Coronavirus—An Accelerator, Not A Catalyst
Chinese and Hong Kong markets are currently following the same script as seen during the SARS outbreak, but we caution against using S&P 500 performance as a guide for what is likely to happen this time around.
A Storied Bubble’s Pearl Anniversary
The decade of the teens has given way to the decade of the twenties and “year in review” retrospectives are in the books, but as the calendar’s last digit rolls from 9 to 0 we consider one more anniversary worth remembering.
Stocks And The U.S. Presidential Election Cycle
Our equity research typically focuses at the sector and industry group levels, thus, in this analysis, we drill down and explore the presidential effect on a more granular level to see what interesting equity trends may have transpired in the past cycles.
Parabolic Prescience?
Market bulls rightly note that in the late 1990s, dozens of stocks exhibited Tesla-like action before the fun eventually came to an end. But we’d remind investors that the last few years have featured other “busted parabolics,” and all of them were followed in short order by broader market troubles.
Tesla: A Short Story
The common, and easy reason given for the recent Tesla move is a short squeeze. We don’t deny that existing shorts are getting “squeezed,” but that’s a result, not a cause, of the recent move. The more likely instigator is speculator FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
Index Rebalance Effect—A Disappearing Anomaly?
In the past we’ve made the observation that adding/deleting stocks to/from a popular index can have a profound impact on the target stocks’ short-term trading volume and performance.
Stock Market
- Index Rebalance Effect—A Disappearing Anomaly?
- The Alternate Ending?
- Superhuman Feats Got Us Here
- Liquidity Overflow!
- Parabolic Prescience?
- Keep Some Powder Dry
- EM Equity Purgatory
- Energy: Kicking A Dog When It’s Down
- Central Planning Makes A Comeback