Green Book August 2020
Free For All?
The weekly covers of The Economist do a pretty good job of capturing the zeitgeist of global financial affairs, but there’s so much packed into every issue (and enough to do around our shop) that sometimes all we see are the covers. (The same happened with Sports Illustrated in our twenties.)
But we have to admit we’re disappointed in The Economist for the week ended July 31st. The “Free Money” theme is at least four months too late!
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Featured Articles
Implications Of The “Breakout”
July’s developments led to us investigate the market valuations accompanying all past month-end S&P 500 breakouts which (1) eclipsed the prior month-end bull market high; and (2) made a new all-time high in the process.
Sentimental Musings
We get irked when TV pundits misrepresent the mood of equity investors as unduly pessimistic based one or two (or zero) data points. Among the dozens of “Attitudinal” indicators we track, an overwhelming majority show professional and retail investors have jumped back into the fray.
Housing Groups Heat Up
A major driver of the division in recent performance among retail groups has been the burgeoning “nesting” theme. Stuck at home, consumers are directing their dollars toward indoor and outdoor home upgrades. A related theme has now established itself in the upper rankings of our group work—Housing.
Research Preview: Growth, Pure And Simple
Growth investing is in the midst of a record run this year, extending its decade-long dominance over the Value style.
Textual Analysis Of Fed Statements—Always Artificial, Sometimes Intelligent
We geek it up a notch and use some of the popular text-processing techniques to quantify the hawkish/dovish sentiment of the latest Fed statement. Some human “coaching” is needed in every step of the process (hence the “artificial” part). But when these tools are used properly for carefully chosen tasks, they can be quite intelligent.
Corporate Debt Continues To Pile Up
Public companies are loading up on debt. Since we wrote about this topic over a year ago, a few metrics have reached, or are surpassing, peaks of 1999-2000. When the readings move to extreme levels, we recommend readers take precautions.
A “Litmus Group” For The Bulls
As troubled sectors vary from downturn to downturn, commercial banks have shown an uncanny ability to leap in front of each cycle’s proverbial pie truck. This time, it’s hard to identify the precise epicenter—especially amidst all the bailouts.
A “Low-Risk” BUY?!?
So what do we make of July’s “low-risk” VLT BUY signal on the DJIA—the index on which the indicator’s creator (Sedge Coppock) did his original work? Sadly, not much.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Corporate Debt Continues To Pile Up
- Free For All?
- Measuring The Cost Of “Free”
- Implications Of The “Breakout”
- After The “Thrust”…
- Sentimental Musings
- A Look At Two Historical Near-Misses
- A “Low-Risk” BUY?!?
- A “Litmus Group” For The Bulls
- How To Value Gold
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Textual Analysis Of Fed Statements—Always Artificial, Sometimes Intelligent
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
Equity Strategies
- Housing Groups Heat Up
- Sector Rankings With Attractive/High Neutral And Unattractive Industry Groups
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum
- Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
- Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
- Cartoon of the Month - August 2020
- Summer Staycation!
- Back to Homeschool Sale!
- Casey Stengel Helps Us Start The Season
- Time For Another Logic Puzzle
- August 2020 Logic Puzzle Answers
- A Nice Catholic Joke... From Frank Lauterbur
- Another Catholic Joke... From Burt Ingwersen
- A Third Catholic Joke?!? C’mon, Phil!
Implications Of The “Breakout”
July’s developments led to us investigate the market valuations accompanying all past month-end S&P 500 breakouts which (1) eclipsed the prior month-end bull market high; and (2) made a new all-time high in the process.
Sentimental Musings
We get irked when TV pundits misrepresent the mood of equity investors as unduly pessimistic based one or two (or zero) data points. Among the dozens of “Attitudinal” indicators we track, an overwhelming majority show professional and retail investors have jumped back into the fray.
Housing Groups Heat Up
A major driver of the division in recent performance among retail groups has been the burgeoning “nesting” theme. Stuck at home, consumers are directing their dollars toward indoor and outdoor home upgrades. A related theme has now established itself in the upper rankings of our group work—Housing.
Research Preview: Growth, Pure And Simple
Growth investing is in the midst of a record run this year, extending its decade-long dominance over the Value style.
Textual Analysis Of Fed Statements—Always Artificial, Sometimes Intelligent
We geek it up a notch and use some of the popular text-processing techniques to quantify the hawkish/dovish sentiment of the latest Fed statement. Some human “coaching” is needed in every step of the process (hence the “artificial” part). But when these tools are used properly for carefully chosen tasks, they can be quite intelligent.
Corporate Debt Continues To Pile Up
Public companies are loading up on debt. Since we wrote about this topic over a year ago, a few metrics have reached, or are surpassing, peaks of 1999-2000. When the readings move to extreme levels, we recommend readers take precautions.
A “Litmus Group” For The Bulls
As troubled sectors vary from downturn to downturn, commercial banks have shown an uncanny ability to leap in front of each cycle’s proverbial pie truck. This time, it’s hard to identify the precise epicenter—especially amidst all the bailouts.
A “Low-Risk” BUY?!?
So what do we make of July’s “low-risk” VLT BUY signal on the DJIA—the index on which the indicator’s creator (Sedge Coppock) did his original work? Sadly, not much.
Stock Market
- Corporate Debt Continues To Pile Up
- Free For All?
- Measuring The Cost Of “Free”
- Implications Of The “Breakout”
- After The “Thrust”…
- Sentimental Musings
- A Look At Two Historical Near-Misses
- A “Low-Risk” BUY?!?
- A “Litmus Group” For The Bulls
- How To Value Gold
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Textual Analysis Of Fed Statements—Always Artificial, Sometimes Intelligent
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
Equity Strategies
- Housing Groups Heat Up
- Sector Rankings With Attractive/High Neutral And Unattractive Industry Groups
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum
- Small Cap vs. Mid Cap vs. Large Cap
- Growth vs. Value vs. Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
- Cartoon of the Month - August 2020
- Summer Staycation!
- Back to Homeschool Sale!
- Casey Stengel Helps Us Start The Season
- Time For Another Logic Puzzle
- August 2020 Logic Puzzle Answers
- A Nice Catholic Joke... From Frank Lauterbur
- Another Catholic Joke... From Burt Ingwersen
- A Third Catholic Joke?!? C’mon, Phil!