Green Book July 2019
Mid-Year Mea Culpa
The S&P 500 has rallied 9.2% in the 22 trading days since its June 3rd low, but the move hasn’t (yet) been enough to lift the Major Trend Index out of its negative zone. It’s tempting to pin the blame on the MTI, and we suspect that quants who routinely override their models keep them around precisely so that something (not someone) can be singled out to be at fault.
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Featured Articles
Big Is Still Beautiful
The 10-year-old bull grabs most of the headlines, but its younger sibling has begun to command more respect.
Building The Wall?
One of the more impressive feats that bullish pundits have pulled off is their successful portrayal of themselves as lonely and misunderstand contrarians even as the eleventh year of a cyclical bull market grinds on.
Correlations Are Worthless, Except This One
We’ve never understood investment quants’ desire to project correlations among assets. Such correlations are inherently unstable.
Return Implications Of Dividend Cuts
Last month we noted that current interest-rate expectations might indicate good timing for dividend investments; however, we strongly suggested being selective, and lean toward high-quality dividend payers.
Slowdown Or Recession? Confidence Is Key
The pattern of sharp sell-offs followed by equally sharp rallies continued in June. Most risky assets recouped nearly all the losses suffered in May, and then some.
Lessons From The Old Masters: John Neff
We believe the results of every investment operation depend, more than anything else, on the quality of the investment philosophy and process that drives the portfolio.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Return Implications Of Dividend Cuts
- Mid-Year Mea Culpa
- Recession Evidence: How Much Is Enough?
- Breadth: Is It Different This Time?
- Big Is Still Beautiful
- Reliving ‘99... Tick By Tick
- Building The Wall?
- Does BUY Now Mean SELL?
- Correlations Are Worthless, Except This One
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Big Is Still Beautiful
The 10-year-old bull grabs most of the headlines, but its younger sibling has begun to command more respect.
Building The Wall?
One of the more impressive feats that bullish pundits have pulled off is their successful portrayal of themselves as lonely and misunderstand contrarians even as the eleventh year of a cyclical bull market grinds on.
Correlations Are Worthless, Except This One
We’ve never understood investment quants’ desire to project correlations among assets. Such correlations are inherently unstable.
Return Implications Of Dividend Cuts
Last month we noted that current interest-rate expectations might indicate good timing for dividend investments; however, we strongly suggested being selective, and lean toward high-quality dividend payers.
Slowdown Or Recession? Confidence Is Key
The pattern of sharp sell-offs followed by equally sharp rallies continued in June. Most risky assets recouped nearly all the losses suffered in May, and then some.
Lessons From The Old Masters: John Neff
We believe the results of every investment operation depend, more than anything else, on the quality of the investment philosophy and process that drives the portfolio.
Stock Market
- Return Implications Of Dividend Cuts
- Mid-Year Mea Culpa
- Recession Evidence: How Much Is Enough?
- Breadth: Is It Different This Time?
- Big Is Still Beautiful
- Reliving ‘99... Tick By Tick
- Building The Wall?
- Does BUY Now Mean SELL?
- Correlations Are Worthless, Except This One