Green Book February 2019
A High-Risk Rally
During the market bounce over the last few weeks, we reminded ourselves and others of the old maxim that “bear market rallies look better than the real thing.” Evidently, the stock market overheard us and took the advice as marching orders.
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Featured Articles
It Wasn’t Powell Who Panicked
The Fed’s “Christmas capitulation” seems to get most of the credit for the stock market rebound, but we’re not exactly sure how, or even if, the Fed capitulated at all.
1998 Parallels
There are enough parallels between the 1998 and 2018 market declines that we decided to flesh out the comparison a bit more.
New Year, Old Leadership
We’ve written at length about a bear market’s tendency to catalyze major leadership changes—across sectors, styles, and even geographies.
Trend-Following Travails
To recap our allocation moves over the last year: We established an initial equity hedge in tactical accounts very close to the January 2018 highs.
Airlines Travel To Attractive In The GS Scores
We look at our domestic Airlines’ GS Score and examine the historical relationship between oil prices and Airline stocks. Additionally, we explore several other data sets to determine where the industry’s supply/demand picture stands heading into 2019.
“Four Corners” Cloud Plays
The Social/Mobile/Cloud theme (SMC) has dominated the stock market in recent years, eventually reaching a frenzied peak in the summer of 2018.
恭喜发财- Red Envelopes From The Fed & PBoC
A significant policy move by China’s People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has gone largely unnoticed.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- A High-Risk Rally
- Did The Doves Swoop In And Save The Day?
- It Wasn’t Powell Who Panicked
- Credit Conundrum
- What Are Bonds Telling Us?
- 1998 Parallels
- Trend-Following Travails
- New Year, Old Leadership
- Sifting Through The Commodity Carnage
- Are New Lows The Key To New Highs?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
It Wasn’t Powell Who Panicked
The Fed’s “Christmas capitulation” seems to get most of the credit for the stock market rebound, but we’re not exactly sure how, or even if, the Fed capitulated at all.
1998 Parallels
There are enough parallels between the 1998 and 2018 market declines that we decided to flesh out the comparison a bit more.
New Year, Old Leadership
We’ve written at length about a bear market’s tendency to catalyze major leadership changes—across sectors, styles, and even geographies.
Trend-Following Travails
To recap our allocation moves over the last year: We established an initial equity hedge in tactical accounts very close to the January 2018 highs.
Airlines Travel To Attractive In The GS Scores
We look at our domestic Airlines’ GS Score and examine the historical relationship between oil prices and Airline stocks. Additionally, we explore several other data sets to determine where the industry’s supply/demand picture stands heading into 2019.
“Four Corners” Cloud Plays
The Social/Mobile/Cloud theme (SMC) has dominated the stock market in recent years, eventually reaching a frenzied peak in the summer of 2018.
恭喜发财- Red Envelopes From The Fed & PBoC
A significant policy move by China’s People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has gone largely unnoticed.
Stock Market
- A High-Risk Rally
- Did The Doves Swoop In And Save The Day?
- It Wasn’t Powell Who Panicked
- Credit Conundrum
- What Are Bonds Telling Us?
- 1998 Parallels
- Trend-Following Travails
- New Year, Old Leadership
- Sifting Through The Commodity Carnage
- Are New Lows The Key To New Highs?