Green Book June 2018
What A Difference A Year Makes
Early this year we chatted with the retired founder of a Midwest investment management and research firm. After living and breathing markets for six decades, this bearded and iconoclastic character had avoided financial publications, Bloomberg, CNBC, and the like for more than a year. Fresh off this sabbatical, he called and exclaimed, “Everything’s changed!”
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Featured Articles
Is The Bull Just Napping?
Old age has certainly put no limitations on the bull’s exploits, so we should be cautious in reading too much into its meandering recovery path. However, it’s possible that action since the February low is not a recovery process but rather a countertrend bounce within a larger downtrend.
MTI Now Decisively Negative
Read this week's Major Trend Index.
Analysts, Summon Your Inner-Angler!
Quantitative investment firms are increasingly touting the cross-disciplinary backgrounds of their research staffs, with prior high-level experience in areas such as medical research and engineering not uncommon.
Cycles And Taxes And GICS, Oh My!
Analyzing quarterly financial results and developing insights about upcoming periods is always difficult, but the first quarter of 2018 was unusually complicated.
All Crowded Trades Are Vulnerable—Even The Yield-Curve Flattener
Bond market volatility picked up quite a bit in May but the higher-low/higher-high pattern in the 10-year yield is still intact, indicating the primary uptrend has not reversed.
Narrow Momentum Performance Hard To Capture
While Momentum has worked very well during the last year, the best performance has been concentrated among the most expensive securities within the high Momentum group.
Transports Gain Momentum Amidst Struggling Industrials Sector; Railroads Purchased
Despite Industrials’ underperformance versus the broad equity market, the sector’s Transportation subset has been on the rise recently. In the latest round of our Group Selection (GS) Scores, four of the five Transportation groups rank Attractive, and the fifth one is rated High Neutral.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- What A Difference A Year Makes
- Is The Bull Just Napping?
- Is Market Breadth Misleading?
- What The Curve Does And Doesn’t Tell Us
- A Smart-Money Split
- Analysts, Summon Your Inner-Angler!
- Shun ETFs With Largest Inflows
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- All Crowded Trades Are Vulnerable—Even The Yield-Curve Flattener
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Is The Bull Just Napping?
Old age has certainly put no limitations on the bull’s exploits, so we should be cautious in reading too much into its meandering recovery path. However, it’s possible that action since the February low is not a recovery process but rather a countertrend bounce within a larger downtrend.
MTI Now Decisively Negative
Read this week's Major Trend Index.
Analysts, Summon Your Inner-Angler!
Quantitative investment firms are increasingly touting the cross-disciplinary backgrounds of their research staffs, with prior high-level experience in areas such as medical research and engineering not uncommon.
Cycles And Taxes And GICS, Oh My!
Analyzing quarterly financial results and developing insights about upcoming periods is always difficult, but the first quarter of 2018 was unusually complicated.
All Crowded Trades Are Vulnerable—Even The Yield-Curve Flattener
Bond market volatility picked up quite a bit in May but the higher-low/higher-high pattern in the 10-year yield is still intact, indicating the primary uptrend has not reversed.
Narrow Momentum Performance Hard To Capture
While Momentum has worked very well during the last year, the best performance has been concentrated among the most expensive securities within the high Momentum group.
Transports Gain Momentum Amidst Struggling Industrials Sector; Railroads Purchased
Despite Industrials’ underperformance versus the broad equity market, the sector’s Transportation subset has been on the rise recently. In the latest round of our Group Selection (GS) Scores, four of the five Transportation groups rank Attractive, and the fifth one is rated High Neutral.
Stock Market
- What A Difference A Year Makes
- Is The Bull Just Napping?
- Is Market Breadth Misleading?
- What The Curve Does And Doesn’t Tell Us
- A Smart-Money Split
- Analysts, Summon Your Inner-Angler!
- Shun ETFs With Largest Inflows
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- All Crowded Trades Are Vulnerable—Even The Yield-Curve Flattener
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds