Green Book July 2018
Party On?
The nine-year stock market “party” may not yet be over, but it’s getting pretty late. Some guests have left, and a few potentially ugly scenes have begun to develop. The party just doesn’t feel as fun or vibrant as it was during 2017, when guests of all stripes were having a great time.
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Featured Articles
Inflation Warning Flags?
After yet another benign figure on wages for June, the idea that inflationary pressures might be a problem for the stock market seems far-fetched.
Investment Grade Widened More Than High Yield: Implications & More
As credit spreads widened, something rather unusual happened: investment grade Corporate bonds performed far worse than High Yield bonds.
Try This On For Size
Today’s market is barbelled regarding company size, with the mega-cap Tech stocks and the S&P 600 Small Cap index both outperforming the middle of the S&P 500.
Trade-War Thematic Group
Trade wars or trade tensions, quietly started in 2017, hadn’t captured the market’s attention until early March this year—as demonstrated through a review of internet keyword search data of “Trade War” and “Tariff.” We present our Trade War thematic group which captures U.S. companies that could suffer the most from a trade war between the Trump administration and the rest of the world.
Discretionary Defies Gravity; Dept. Stores Purchased
Brick-and-mortar retail, not to mention antiquated Department Stores, have pretty much been declared dead in the age of Amazon. Often, this is when our GS Scores shine brightest... by picking industries that, at the time, are not intuitive and hard to stomach.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
Our Ratio of Ratios has been stuck in the Small Cap premium range of 2% to 7% for the last ten months—limiting the ability to make a call on market cap preference with this vignette.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Party On?
- The Bulls And Bears Agree!
- Multiple Personality Disorder?
- Where’s The Spring In The Step?
- Trouble Is “Spreading”
- Inflation Warning Flags?
- A New ISM “Composite”
- An Old Chart Whose Time Has Come?
- Foreign Stocks “De-Coupling”
- Apple Back Tickling 4%
- Trade-War Thematic Group
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Investment Grade Widened More Than High Yield: Implications & More
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Discretionary Defies Gravity; Dept. Stores Purchased
- GS Score Sector Rankings With Attractive & Unattractive Rated Industry Groups
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Inflation Warning Flags?
After yet another benign figure on wages for June, the idea that inflationary pressures might be a problem for the stock market seems far-fetched.
Investment Grade Widened More Than High Yield: Implications & More
As credit spreads widened, something rather unusual happened: investment grade Corporate bonds performed far worse than High Yield bonds.
Try This On For Size
Today’s market is barbelled regarding company size, with the mega-cap Tech stocks and the S&P 600 Small Cap index both outperforming the middle of the S&P 500.
Trade-War Thematic Group
Trade wars or trade tensions, quietly started in 2017, hadn’t captured the market’s attention until early March this year—as demonstrated through a review of internet keyword search data of “Trade War” and “Tariff.” We present our Trade War thematic group which captures U.S. companies that could suffer the most from a trade war between the Trump administration and the rest of the world.
Discretionary Defies Gravity; Dept. Stores Purchased
Brick-and-mortar retail, not to mention antiquated Department Stores, have pretty much been declared dead in the age of Amazon. Often, this is when our GS Scores shine brightest... by picking industries that, at the time, are not intuitive and hard to stomach.
Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
Our Ratio of Ratios has been stuck in the Small Cap premium range of 2% to 7% for the last ten months—limiting the ability to make a call on market cap preference with this vignette.
Stock Market
- Party On?
- The Bulls And Bears Agree!
- Multiple Personality Disorder?
- Where’s The Spring In The Step?
- Trouble Is “Spreading”
- Inflation Warning Flags?
- A New ISM “Composite”
- An Old Chart Whose Time Has Come?
- Foreign Stocks “De-Coupling”
- Apple Back Tickling 4%
- Trade-War Thematic Group
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Investment Grade Widened More Than High Yield: Implications & More
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Discretionary Defies Gravity; Dept. Stores Purchased
- GS Score Sector Rankings With Attractive & Unattractive Rated Industry Groups