Green Book February 2018
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Most Likely Just a Correction
While valuations render it dangerous to hold out for evidence of an impending top, our work doesn't yet show a full-blownbearish call.
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Featured Articles
Implications Of Extreme Momentum
Historically, leadership and breadth accompanying an upside market move is far more predictive than the pure momentum of the move. But when intermediate-term momentum is not just strong but exceptional (as it was until just recently), there has usually been even more upside to follow.
Leuthold Thematic Baskets 2.0
After a hiatus of several years, we are re-introducing one of our favorite analytical tools. A thematic basket is a custom-designed set of assets which are exposed to, and will react similarly to, a common theme. Our first new thematic basket is “Capital Spending Beneficiaries.”
Anatomy Of A Dollar Bear Market
With the dollar index breaking below the 2017 low, we believe the dollar bull market that started in 2011 (based on the trade-weighted dollar index) is most likely over.
Multiple Contraction—Just A Little Patience?
Things were bigger when you were a kid. Like that enormous sweatshirt your aunt gave you for your birthday or that hand-me-down ten-speed bike with the cross bar taller than your shoulders.
GS Scores: Industrial Metals Stocks Heating Up
While the Materials sector overall still isn’t looking stellar based on our work, we think with the Metals theme heating up, it’s a trend worth watching.
Earnings Momentum
Our Up/Down Ratio soared to an impressive reading of 2.65—nine years into the current recovery. This is the highest “one-month” reading we’ve seen since 1993.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Most Likely Just A Correction
- Stock Market Observations
- Recessions & The Stock Market
- Rates: Does Trend Or Level Matter More?
- Market Pressure Points?
- Implications Of Extreme Momentum
- Will Rates Kill The Low Vol Mania?
- How About That January?!
- Too Many Highs, Too Many Lows??
- What Yield “Kills” The Secular Bond Bull?
- Multiple Contraction—Just A Little Patience?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Anatomy Of A Dollar Bear Market
- Risk Aversion Index: Turned Higher But Stayed On The “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Implications Of Extreme Momentum
Historically, leadership and breadth accompanying an upside market move is far more predictive than the pure momentum of the move. But when intermediate-term momentum is not just strong but exceptional (as it was until just recently), there has usually been even more upside to follow.
Leuthold Thematic Baskets 2.0
After a hiatus of several years, we are re-introducing one of our favorite analytical tools. A thematic basket is a custom-designed set of assets which are exposed to, and will react similarly to, a common theme. Our first new thematic basket is “Capital Spending Beneficiaries.”
Anatomy Of A Dollar Bear Market
With the dollar index breaking below the 2017 low, we believe the dollar bull market that started in 2011 (based on the trade-weighted dollar index) is most likely over.
Multiple Contraction—Just A Little Patience?
Things were bigger when you were a kid. Like that enormous sweatshirt your aunt gave you for your birthday or that hand-me-down ten-speed bike with the cross bar taller than your shoulders.
GS Scores: Industrial Metals Stocks Heating Up
While the Materials sector overall still isn’t looking stellar based on our work, we think with the Metals theme heating up, it’s a trend worth watching.
Earnings Momentum
Our Up/Down Ratio soared to an impressive reading of 2.65—nine years into the current recovery. This is the highest “one-month” reading we’ve seen since 1993.
Stock Market
- Most Likely Just A Correction
- Stock Market Observations
- Recessions & The Stock Market
- Rates: Does Trend Or Level Matter More?
- Market Pressure Points?
- Implications Of Extreme Momentum
- Will Rates Kill The Low Vol Mania?
- How About That January?!
- Too Many Highs, Too Many Lows??
- What Yield “Kills” The Secular Bond Bull?
- Multiple Contraction—Just A Little Patience?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Anatomy Of A Dollar Bear Market
- Risk Aversion Index: Turned Higher But Stayed On The “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds