Green Book April 2018
This Is A Head-Scratcher
The longest and probably most complex bull market in history is not going to make a clean and decisive exit.
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Featured Articles
A “Drug-Free” Market Decline?
Yields on 10-year Treasuries are up 10 bps since stocks peaked in January, a clear break from the behavior of prior corrections. The last four stock declines of 10%+ were self-medicating—having been accompanied by bond yield declines of 50 to 150 basis points.
Defensive Equity Styles: The Sultan Of Swat And The Splendid Splinter
After performing amazingly well in the record-setting bull market run since 2009, defensive equities are once again drawing attention for their traditional role as hedges against a continuation of recent market declines.
The Commodity Stock Disconnect
We’ve chronicled the ever-expanding gap between commodity prices and commodity-oriented equities. Don’t expect a rebound in one based on the strength of the other. There’s no clear historical tendency for the weaker asset to catch up.
Trade War & Libor—More Bark Than Bite?
Isn’t a trade war more bark than bite? We think a full-blown trade war may be eventually negotiated away but the process is not necessarily painless to investors.
Discretionary Reigns: Hotels & Leisure Revisited
The Consumer Discretionary index has also managed to outperform the S&P 500 by about 100 bps since the market’s January 26th peak, and in late March it was just a hair away from surpassing its previous relative strength performance high recorded in late 2015.
2018 Fund Flows Off To A Slow Start
Volatile markets in 2018 have lent to relatively subdued mutual fund (MF) and ETF inflows.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- This Is A Head-Scratcher
- “What, Me Worry?”
- A “Drug-Free” Market Decline?
- Assessing The Selling
- Minding The Middle
- A Fleeting Glimpse Of Goldilocks?
- The Foreign Stock Conundrum
- Musings On Margins
- The Commodity Stock Disconnect
- A Troublesome Commodity Pattern...
- Feeble Recovery For The Feds?
- Trade War Beneficiaries?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Trade War & Libor—More Bark Than Bite?
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
- U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: Maintain Neutral
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
A “Drug-Free” Market Decline?
Yields on 10-year Treasuries are up 10 bps since stocks peaked in January, a clear break from the behavior of prior corrections. The last four stock declines of 10%+ were self-medicating—having been accompanied by bond yield declines of 50 to 150 basis points.
Defensive Equity Styles: The Sultan Of Swat And The Splendid Splinter
After performing amazingly well in the record-setting bull market run since 2009, defensive equities are once again drawing attention for their traditional role as hedges against a continuation of recent market declines.
The Commodity Stock Disconnect
We’ve chronicled the ever-expanding gap between commodity prices and commodity-oriented equities. Don’t expect a rebound in one based on the strength of the other. There’s no clear historical tendency for the weaker asset to catch up.
Trade War & Libor—More Bark Than Bite?
Isn’t a trade war more bark than bite? We think a full-blown trade war may be eventually negotiated away but the process is not necessarily painless to investors.
Discretionary Reigns: Hotels & Leisure Revisited
The Consumer Discretionary index has also managed to outperform the S&P 500 by about 100 bps since the market’s January 26th peak, and in late March it was just a hair away from surpassing its previous relative strength performance high recorded in late 2015.
2018 Fund Flows Off To A Slow Start
Volatile markets in 2018 have lent to relatively subdued mutual fund (MF) and ETF inflows.
Stock Market
- This Is A Head-Scratcher
- “What, Me Worry?”
- A “Drug-Free” Market Decline?
- Assessing The Selling
- Minding The Middle
- A Fleeting Glimpse Of Goldilocks?
- The Foreign Stock Conundrum
- Musings On Margins
- The Commodity Stock Disconnect
- A Troublesome Commodity Pattern...
- Feeble Recovery For The Feds?
- Trade War Beneficiaries?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Trade War & Libor—More Bark Than Bite?
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Higher Risk” Signal
- U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds: Maintain Neutral