Green Book September 2017
Someday, Fear Won’t Be Bullish
Does this year’s incredibly low stock market volatility mean the end is near? History is inconclusive.
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Featured Articles
Stock Market Observations
We believe this bull market still has legs… but so too might the mini-correction that’s hit mainly the secondary stocks thus far.
Spoiler Alert! The Bond Bear Is Already Here...
Bond investors residing in the Lower For Longer© camp no doubt feel vindicated by the summer rally that’s taken yields on 10-year Treasury bonds to as low as 2.06% in early September.
Goldilocks—Alive And Well
If we look beyond the daily noise from North Korea, the global macro picture still fits our “Goldilocks” view pretty well.
A Harbor In The Tempest
Our Major Trend Index (MTI) recently fell from “positive” toward stocks to a “neutral” reading, leading us to trim bullish equity positions in our tactical portfolios.
Defensive Positioning With Leuthold’s Groups
With the Major Trend Index now in “neutral” territory, and several well-known market strategists urging increased caution and risk awareness, we offer our perspective on defensive investing from the standpoint of our group work.
Momentum-Based Country Rotation: EM Vs. DM
Last month we assessed the effectiveness of using valuation factors as a basis for country allocation. Using 20 years of data, our results showed that they work quite well specifically for Emerging Market (EM) country-rotation, however, the same valuation-based strategy does not appear to be value-added for Developed Market (DM) allocation/rotation.
Value Continues To Underperform
August factor performance was more of the same: Value underperforming everything else and extending its losing streak relative to Growth.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Someday, Fear Won’t Be Bullish
- Stock Market Observations
- Market Breadth Has Yet To “Lie” Down
- Yet Another Way To Time The Top
- Could It Be A “Two-Fer?”
- Commodities: How Strong Is Too Strong?
- Sector Margin Checkup
- Spoiler Alert! The Bond Bear Is Already Here...
- Bonds: No Pain, Yet No Gain
- Don’t Look Now, But...
- Momentum-Based Country Rotation: EM Vs. DM
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Stock Market Observations
We believe this bull market still has legs… but so too might the mini-correction that’s hit mainly the secondary stocks thus far.
Spoiler Alert! The Bond Bear Is Already Here...
Bond investors residing in the Lower For Longer© camp no doubt feel vindicated by the summer rally that’s taken yields on 10-year Treasury bonds to as low as 2.06% in early September.
Goldilocks—Alive And Well
If we look beyond the daily noise from North Korea, the global macro picture still fits our “Goldilocks” view pretty well.
A Harbor In The Tempest
Our Major Trend Index (MTI) recently fell from “positive” toward stocks to a “neutral” reading, leading us to trim bullish equity positions in our tactical portfolios.
Defensive Positioning With Leuthold’s Groups
With the Major Trend Index now in “neutral” territory, and several well-known market strategists urging increased caution and risk awareness, we offer our perspective on defensive investing from the standpoint of our group work.
Momentum-Based Country Rotation: EM Vs. DM
Last month we assessed the effectiveness of using valuation factors as a basis for country allocation. Using 20 years of data, our results showed that they work quite well specifically for Emerging Market (EM) country-rotation, however, the same valuation-based strategy does not appear to be value-added for Developed Market (DM) allocation/rotation.
Value Continues To Underperform
August factor performance was more of the same: Value underperforming everything else and extending its losing streak relative to Growth.
Stock Market
- Someday, Fear Won’t Be Bullish
- Stock Market Observations
- Market Breadth Has Yet To “Lie” Down
- Yet Another Way To Time The Top
- Could It Be A “Two-Fer?”
- Commodities: How Strong Is Too Strong?
- Sector Margin Checkup
- Spoiler Alert! The Bond Bear Is Already Here...
- Bonds: No Pain, Yet No Gain
- Don’t Look Now, But...
- Momentum-Based Country Rotation: EM Vs. DM