Green Book March 2017
A “Good Year” To Start The Year
The S&P 500 was up 6.4% YTD through March 3rd, a bit above its average annualized gain of 5.9% since 1926. In other words, 2017 would be a good year if the books were closed today.
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Featured Articles
What A Strong “Tape” Does (And Doesn’t) Mean
Our disciplines remain bullish, but we periodically wonder whether we’re being too cavalier in keeping our tactical portfolios “almost” fully-invested (at 65% equities) in the face of valuations that are higher than those seen in all but perhaps 24 months of stock market history.
What’s Wrong With Energy Stocks?
One of our disappointments with the Group Selection (GS) Scores in 2016 was their failure to latch on to the rebound in Energy groups.
Grappling With A Strong U.S. Dollar Outlook
Profitable investing overseas requires not one, but two, successful decisions: 1) select an outperforming asset class; and, 2) be in a currency that provides a favorable foreign exchange impact.
Three Steps And No Stumble
Given the high likelihood of a March rate hike, we can’t help but wonder if the old adage of “three steps and a stumble” really holds.
Financials Remain Atop Sector Rankings
Our Financials Sector Ranking has been strengthening since August—well before the Trump Bump. The addition of Regional Banks to our SI Portfolio boosts our Financials exposure to an overweight 26% versus the S&P 500’s 15% weight. Reinsurance and Developed Diversified Banks are also among the Attractively-rated options for diversification within the sector.
February Factor Performance
Low Volatility was in favor once again during February after struggling the previous month. Starting in September, the factor has continuously reversed the previous month’s performance.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- A “Good Year” To Start The Year
- A Subdued 8th Birthday Celebration
- What A Strong “Tape” Does (And Doesn’t) Mean
- Estimating The Upside: Another Angle
- What’s Wrong With Energy Stocks?
- Could Inflation Threaten The Stock Market?
- Inflation: Just A Cyclical Uptick
- Lo And Behold, Another RATIO!!
- Emerging Markets: Momentum-Based Sector Rotation
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Up/Down Earnings: Ratio Sinks To Average
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- Additional Factors
Portfolios
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
What A Strong “Tape” Does (And Doesn’t) Mean
Our disciplines remain bullish, but we periodically wonder whether we’re being too cavalier in keeping our tactical portfolios “almost” fully-invested (at 65% equities) in the face of valuations that are higher than those seen in all but perhaps 24 months of stock market history.
What’s Wrong With Energy Stocks?
One of our disappointments with the Group Selection (GS) Scores in 2016 was their failure to latch on to the rebound in Energy groups.
Grappling With A Strong U.S. Dollar Outlook
Profitable investing overseas requires not one, but two, successful decisions: 1) select an outperforming asset class; and, 2) be in a currency that provides a favorable foreign exchange impact.
Three Steps And No Stumble
Given the high likelihood of a March rate hike, we can’t help but wonder if the old adage of “three steps and a stumble” really holds.
Financials Remain Atop Sector Rankings
Our Financials Sector Ranking has been strengthening since August—well before the Trump Bump. The addition of Regional Banks to our SI Portfolio boosts our Financials exposure to an overweight 26% versus the S&P 500’s 15% weight. Reinsurance and Developed Diversified Banks are also among the Attractively-rated options for diversification within the sector.
February Factor Performance
Low Volatility was in favor once again during February after struggling the previous month. Starting in September, the factor has continuously reversed the previous month’s performance.
Stock Market
- A “Good Year” To Start The Year
- A Subdued 8th Birthday Celebration
- What A Strong “Tape” Does (And Doesn’t) Mean
- Estimating The Upside: Another Angle
- What’s Wrong With Energy Stocks?
- Could Inflation Threaten The Stock Market?
- Inflation: Just A Cyclical Uptick
- Lo And Behold, Another RATIO!!
- Emerging Markets: Momentum-Based Sector Rotation
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
- Up/Down Earnings: Ratio Sinks To Average
- Small Cap vs Mid Cap vs Large Cap
- Growth vs Value vs Cyclicals
- Additional Factors