Green Book January 2017
“Changes In Attitudes, Changes In Latitudes”
The above caption—and Jimmy Buffett song title—comes from the “View From The North Country” section in the first-ever Green Book published in November 1981. Not much has changed in 35 years.
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter
Leuthold Advisors Newsletter subscriptions include a no-obligation 14-day trial. Cancel at any time before the 14 days are over and you will not be billed.
Subscribe nowLogin
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Featured Articles
“Changes In Attitudes, Changes In Latitudes”
The above caption—and Jimmy Buffett song title—comes from the “View From The North Country” section in the first-ever Green Book published in November 1981. Not much has changed in 35 years.
Trends In Corporate Debt And Coverage Ratios
Long-term debt (LTD) issued by S&P 500 companies has risen 75% since 2010, and the resulting deterioration in leverage ratios has been all too evident.
2017 Time Cycle—A Tale Of Two Halves
In 2016, both the U.S. and the U.K. stock markets tracked their historical patterns quite well but other international equity markets and non-equity markets tracked poorly.
U.S. Rates—Not A Bear Market Yet
There are certainly better catalysts this time that make a bear market a distinct possibility, but until a decisive break occurs (most likely when the 10-year gets above 3%), the bull market is still intact.
2016’s Industry Group Dream & Nightmare Portfolios
For nearly three decades The Leuthold Group has tracked its hypothetical industry group portfolios composed of the previous year’s “Dreams” (best performers) and “Nightmares” (worst performers).
An Obligatory Rant Over High Valuations
We remain cyclically bullish, but it would be intellectually dishonest to try to make a serious valuation case for the stock market here.
2016 GS Score Performance Challenges
After three consecutive years of positive performance, the Group Selection (GS) Scores struggled in 2016.
Sectors And Industry Groups On Our Radar
A look at various dynamics affecting sector results in 2016, and what we like going into 2017, both at the sector level and among groups.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- “Changes In Attitudes, Changes In Latitudes”
- Safety In Numbers?
- Plenty Of Love For The Rally
- An Obligatory Rant Over High Valuations
- Tilt Toward Beta
- Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?
- Bridesmaid Track Record
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Return Vs. Volatility
- Bridesmaid Strategy For Equity Managers
- Bridesmaid Sector Track Record
- Hate Momentum? Try This...
- Low P/E Sector: Annual Results
- 2016’s Industry Group Dream & Nightmare Portfolios
- Impact Of Lower Corporate Tax Rate
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- U.S. Rates—Not A Bear Market Yet
- 2017 Time Cycle—A Tale Of Two Halves
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- 2016 GS Score Performance Challenges
- Sectors And Industry Groups On Our Radar
- January’s GS Score Sector Rankings
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum
- Ratio Of Ratios Bouncing Hard
- Value Stocks Kill Multi-Year Trends In 2016
- S&P 500: Cold Start, Hot Finish
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
“Changes In Attitudes, Changes In Latitudes”
The above caption—and Jimmy Buffett song title—comes from the “View From The North Country” section in the first-ever Green Book published in November 1981. Not much has changed in 35 years.
Trends In Corporate Debt And Coverage Ratios
Long-term debt (LTD) issued by S&P 500 companies has risen 75% since 2010, and the resulting deterioration in leverage ratios has been all too evident.
2017 Time Cycle—A Tale Of Two Halves
In 2016, both the U.S. and the U.K. stock markets tracked their historical patterns quite well but other international equity markets and non-equity markets tracked poorly.
U.S. Rates—Not A Bear Market Yet
There are certainly better catalysts this time that make a bear market a distinct possibility, but until a decisive break occurs (most likely when the 10-year gets above 3%), the bull market is still intact.
2016’s Industry Group Dream & Nightmare Portfolios
For nearly three decades The Leuthold Group has tracked its hypothetical industry group portfolios composed of the previous year’s “Dreams” (best performers) and “Nightmares” (worst performers).
An Obligatory Rant Over High Valuations
We remain cyclically bullish, but it would be intellectually dishonest to try to make a serious valuation case for the stock market here.
2016 GS Score Performance Challenges
After three consecutive years of positive performance, the Group Selection (GS) Scores struggled in 2016.
Sectors And Industry Groups On Our Radar
A look at various dynamics affecting sector results in 2016, and what we like going into 2017, both at the sector level and among groups.
Stock Market
- “Changes In Attitudes, Changes In Latitudes”
- Safety In Numbers?
- Plenty Of Love For The Rally
- An Obligatory Rant Over High Valuations
- Tilt Toward Beta
- Asset Allocation: Buy Strength Or Weakness?
- Bridesmaid Track Record
- Bridesmaid Strategy: Return Vs. Volatility
- Bridesmaid Strategy For Equity Managers
- Bridesmaid Sector Track Record
- Hate Momentum? Try This...
- Low P/E Sector: Annual Results
- 2016’s Industry Group Dream & Nightmare Portfolios
- Impact Of Lower Corporate Tax Rate
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- U.S. Rates—Not A Bear Market Yet
- 2017 Time Cycle—A Tale Of Two Halves
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- 2016 GS Score Performance Challenges
- Sectors And Industry Groups On Our Radar
- January’s GS Score Sector Rankings
Market Internals
- Earnings Momentum
- Ratio Of Ratios Bouncing Hard
- Value Stocks Kill Multi-Year Trends In 2016
- S&P 500: Cold Start, Hot Finish