Green Book April 2017
Spring Forward, Fall Back?
March was an uneventful month for the blue chips, but setbacks in the biggest beneficiaries of the “Trump Bump” (Small Caps, Transports, Banks) seemed to chase away investors.
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Featured Articles
Spring Forward, Fall Back?
The S&P 500 has gained about 5% on the year, respectable but hardly consistent with the “melt up” scenario we thought might occur.
Stock Market Observations
Second-half results showed the U.S. emerging from the 2015-2016 profit recession, and our early read is that the first quarter should show more of the same.
Anatomy Of A Tightening Cycle
The tapering of QE, clearly a tightening move, complicates the definition of the current tightening cycle.
Stock Picking In A Season Of Animal Spirits
We examine past capex spending patterns and identify industries with sales growth rates that have historically been the most responsive to capex cycles.
Which EPS Are We Talking About?
The distinction between reported GAAP earnings and adjusted operating earnings has long been a source of debate among fundamental investors, and the choice of “E” will materially impact each investor’s view of the market’s P/E ratio.
In Uncertain World, Investors Reward Growth
With the “Trump Trade” in question, investors have been flocking to companies delivering tangible results.
Two Charts For Bond Bulls
With U.S. real GDP growing about 2% year-over-year and the rest of the Developed world growing even slower, it’s hard to imagine that economic momentum may be peaking.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Spring Forward, Fall Back?
- Which EPS Are We Talking About?
- Stock Market Observations
- What’s Ailing Small Caps?
- The Valuation “Time Clock” Revisited
- Crude Still At Risk?
- Global Valuation Checkup
- Cyclicals: Tired Of Surprises?
- Two Charts For Bond Bulls
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
Major Trend
Fund Flow Trends
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Spring Forward, Fall Back?
The S&P 500 has gained about 5% on the year, respectable but hardly consistent with the “melt up” scenario we thought might occur.
Stock Market Observations
Second-half results showed the U.S. emerging from the 2015-2016 profit recession, and our early read is that the first quarter should show more of the same.
Anatomy Of A Tightening Cycle
The tapering of QE, clearly a tightening move, complicates the definition of the current tightening cycle.
Stock Picking In A Season Of Animal Spirits
We examine past capex spending patterns and identify industries with sales growth rates that have historically been the most responsive to capex cycles.
Which EPS Are We Talking About?
The distinction between reported GAAP earnings and adjusted operating earnings has long been a source of debate among fundamental investors, and the choice of “E” will materially impact each investor’s view of the market’s P/E ratio.
In Uncertain World, Investors Reward Growth
With the “Trump Trade” in question, investors have been flocking to companies delivering tangible results.
Two Charts For Bond Bulls
With U.S. real GDP growing about 2% year-over-year and the rest of the Developed world growing even slower, it’s hard to imagine that economic momentum may be peaking.
Stock Market
- Spring Forward, Fall Back?
- Which EPS Are We Talking About?
- Stock Market Observations
- What’s Ailing Small Caps?
- The Valuation “Time Clock” Revisited
- Crude Still At Risk?
- Global Valuation Checkup
- Cyclicals: Tired Of Surprises?
- Two Charts For Bond Bulls