Green Book November 2016
Goodbye ZIRP, Hello WIRP
Allow us to put forth yet another theory for this season’s plummet in NFL television ratings: Fed watching is back!
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Featured Articles
MTI Closes October Healthy
The Major Trend Index closed October flat at its month-earlier reading of 1.27.
The “Low Vol” Unwind: Just The Beginning?
In mid-summer we suggested that attaining new market highs would probably require a rotation away from the long-time Low Volatility market leaders and into High Beta areas like Technology and industrial cyclicals.
Not Much “Lift” From VLT “BUY”
In the June Green Book, we professed some skepticism surrounding the long-term, “low-risk” BUY signal for stocks that was triggered at the end of May by our Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum algorithm (also known as the Coppock Curve).
A New Take On The Labor Market
Politicians bemoan the lack of “good-paying jobs,” but what’s the current perspective of employers? According to a simple measure developed by economist Edward Renshaw many decades ago, employers see a lack of “unused labor capacity” in the U.S. that should lead to yet another year of disappointing GDP growth in 2017.
An Initial Look At Smart Beta And Factor Investing
Also known as smart beta or strategic beta, factor investing has become the hottest portfolio management trend in the last five years. The smart beta space exceeds $600 billion in assets under management.
Can Companies Sustain Cash Payouts?
Companies are returning cash to investors at a level never before seen. Counting dividend payouts and outstanding share repurchases, the amount of cash returned back to investors crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in January 2016 (based on trailing twelve-months’ total for the largest 500 companies, Chart 1).
Time For A Transportation Turnaround?
We examine the recent strength in the Dow Jones Transportation Index and its underlying industries: Airlines, Railroads, Air Freight & Logistics, and Trucking.
Reflation And Election Year Patterns—Not Much To Lean On
· One bright spot in last month’s lackluster market action was that inflation sensitive assets saw impressive relative returns.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Goodbye ZIRP, Hello WIRP
- Has The Fed Already Hit Stocks?
- The “Low Vol” Unwind: Just The Beginning?
- Four Thousand Companies Can’t Be Wrong!
- Not Much “Lift” From VLT “BUY”
- Lack Of Confidence Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
- A New Take On The Labor Market
- Wanted: A Wrong-Way Economist
- Real Bond Returns: Set To Flatline?
- Can Companies Sustain Cash Payouts?
- Earnings-Release Price Movement Among Sectors/Industries
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Reflation And Election Year Patterns—Not Much To Lean On
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolios
- Domestic & Global Portfolios
- AdvantHedge… 100% Short Domestic Portfolio
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
MTI Closes October Healthy
The Major Trend Index closed October flat at its month-earlier reading of 1.27.
The “Low Vol” Unwind: Just The Beginning?
In mid-summer we suggested that attaining new market highs would probably require a rotation away from the long-time Low Volatility market leaders and into High Beta areas like Technology and industrial cyclicals.
Not Much “Lift” From VLT “BUY”
In the June Green Book, we professed some skepticism surrounding the long-term, “low-risk” BUY signal for stocks that was triggered at the end of May by our Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum algorithm (also known as the Coppock Curve).
A New Take On The Labor Market
Politicians bemoan the lack of “good-paying jobs,” but what’s the current perspective of employers? According to a simple measure developed by economist Edward Renshaw many decades ago, employers see a lack of “unused labor capacity” in the U.S. that should lead to yet another year of disappointing GDP growth in 2017.
An Initial Look At Smart Beta And Factor Investing
Also known as smart beta or strategic beta, factor investing has become the hottest portfolio management trend in the last five years. The smart beta space exceeds $600 billion in assets under management.
Can Companies Sustain Cash Payouts?
Companies are returning cash to investors at a level never before seen. Counting dividend payouts and outstanding share repurchases, the amount of cash returned back to investors crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time in January 2016 (based on trailing twelve-months’ total for the largest 500 companies, Chart 1).
Time For A Transportation Turnaround?
We examine the recent strength in the Dow Jones Transportation Index and its underlying industries: Airlines, Railroads, Air Freight & Logistics, and Trucking.
Reflation And Election Year Patterns—Not Much To Lean On
· One bright spot in last month’s lackluster market action was that inflation sensitive assets saw impressive relative returns.
Stock Market
- Goodbye ZIRP, Hello WIRP
- Has The Fed Already Hit Stocks?
- The “Low Vol” Unwind: Just The Beginning?
- Four Thousand Companies Can’t Be Wrong!
- Not Much “Lift” From VLT “BUY”
- Lack Of Confidence Has Been Greatly Exaggerated
- A New Take On The Labor Market
- Wanted: A Wrong-Way Economist
- Real Bond Returns: Set To Flatline?
- Can Companies Sustain Cash Payouts?
- Earnings-Release Price Movement Among Sectors/Industries
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Reflation And Election Year Patterns—Not Much To Lean On
- Risk Aversion Index: Stayed On “Lower Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolios
- Domestic & Global Portfolios
- AdvantHedge… 100% Short Domestic Portfolio