Green Book February 2016
There’s Always A Hook...
Bear markets need a “hook”—some sort of misdirection that keeps the majority hoping… and handing briefcases full of cash to the bear (better do it before they outlaw the stuff).
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Featured Articles
Major Trend Index Decisively Negative
The MTI fell deeper into bear territory during a horrendous market month. The 0.80 ratio is consistent with an ongoing primary bear market—and so are many of the moves by various MTI categories.
The Bullish Case: A Mental Exercise
We’ve been correctly positioned near our tactical portfolios’ equity minimums, yet we’re oddly compelled to use this month’s “Of Special Interest” section as a very public second-guessing of that move.
There’s Always A Hook...
Bear markets need a “hook”—some sort of misdirection that keeps the majority hoping. Our work suggests a primary bear market is underway, and we fear oil is this bear’s hook…but the problems run deeper than oil.
NYSE “New Lows” Figures Point To “Lower Lows”…
At the August and late January S&P 500 lows, both the Daily and Weekly NYSE New Lows figures exceeded 40% of Issues Traded —a degree of downside thrust rarely seen outside of bear markets.
Market’s Message To The Fed: Stop The Tightening!
We think the Fed’s projection of four more hikes this year is absolutely unachievable, and we are no doubt siding with the market’s current projection of one hike, at most (if any), this year.
Too Early To Dethrone Dividend Stocks?
In the context of a low growth/low inflation environment, with the Fed taking its time to guide rates upward, fixed income type of investments may pale by comparison to dividend paying stocks.
Revenge Of The Gamers
Despite the already strong performance over the last three years, this group has recession proof attributes, positive industry trends, and widespread areas of potential growth.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- There’s Always A Hook...
- Was That All There Was To It?
- Beware The Deceptive S&P…
- NYSE “New Lows” Figures Point To “Lower Lows”…
- Learning From Failures?
- Draghi: Losing The Battle And The War
- Overthinking Market Sentiment
- How Much Slack?
- Too Early To Dethrone Dividend Stocks?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Market’s Message To The Fed: Stop The Tightening!
- The Current State Of Stock-Bond Relationship: Risk-Off
- Risk Aversion Index—Moved Up; A New “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- February GS Score Highlights
- Homebuilding Group Downgraded And Sold
- Revenge Of The Gamers
- Info Tech, Financials, Health Care—Remain Top Three Rated Sectors
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
- Domestic & Global Long-Only Portfolios
- 100% Short Portfolio: AdvantHedge
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Major Trend Index Decisively Negative
The MTI fell deeper into bear territory during a horrendous market month. The 0.80 ratio is consistent with an ongoing primary bear market—and so are many of the moves by various MTI categories.
The Bullish Case: A Mental Exercise
We’ve been correctly positioned near our tactical portfolios’ equity minimums, yet we’re oddly compelled to use this month’s “Of Special Interest” section as a very public second-guessing of that move.
There’s Always A Hook...
Bear markets need a “hook”—some sort of misdirection that keeps the majority hoping. Our work suggests a primary bear market is underway, and we fear oil is this bear’s hook…but the problems run deeper than oil.
NYSE “New Lows” Figures Point To “Lower Lows”…
At the August and late January S&P 500 lows, both the Daily and Weekly NYSE New Lows figures exceeded 40% of Issues Traded —a degree of downside thrust rarely seen outside of bear markets.
Market’s Message To The Fed: Stop The Tightening!
We think the Fed’s projection of four more hikes this year is absolutely unachievable, and we are no doubt siding with the market’s current projection of one hike, at most (if any), this year.
Too Early To Dethrone Dividend Stocks?
In the context of a low growth/low inflation environment, with the Fed taking its time to guide rates upward, fixed income type of investments may pale by comparison to dividend paying stocks.
Revenge Of The Gamers
Despite the already strong performance over the last three years, this group has recession proof attributes, positive industry trends, and widespread areas of potential growth.
Stock Market
- There’s Always A Hook...
- Was That All There Was To It?
- Beware The Deceptive S&P…
- NYSE “New Lows” Figures Point To “Lower Lows”…
- Learning From Failures?
- Draghi: Losing The Battle And The War
- Overthinking Market Sentiment
- How Much Slack?
- Too Early To Dethrone Dividend Stocks?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Market’s Message To The Fed: Stop The Tightening!
- The Current State Of Stock-Bond Relationship: Risk-Off
- Risk Aversion Index—Moved Up; A New “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- February GS Score Highlights
- Homebuilding Group Downgraded And Sold
- Revenge Of The Gamers
- Info Tech, Financials, Health Care—Remain Top Three Rated Sectors
Quant
Market Internals
Portfolios
- Core & Global Asset Allocation Portfolios
- Domestic & Global Long-Only Portfolios
- 100% Short Portfolio: AdvantHedge