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Green Book September 2015

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Featured Articles

Stock Market

More Trouble Ahead

We now assume that a cyclical bear market in equities is underway, and have positioned our tactical portfolios with net equity exposure of just 35%.
Stock Market

How Far Could It Fall?

Our valuation work shows many “garden variety” cyclical bear markets bottom out fairly close to long-term median valuation levels on the S&P 500. A reversion to median valuations would entail a peak-to-trough S&P 500 loss of –21.1%.
Of Special Interest

Oil Price “Crashes” In Historical Perspective

In view of the last year’s steep decline in oil prices, Energy has been a frequent headline topic.

Macro Monitor

Three Questions & One Answer: From Divergence To Convergence

1) Why The Big Sell-Off In Stocks? 2) Why Didn’t Interest Rates Go Lower? 3) Why Was The Dollar Weaker?

Equity Strategies

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing: New Purchase

Amidst the Energy carnage, the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing group is the exception, having returned over 7% YTD. Refiners are able to perform well in a variety of oil price scenarios—and tend to thrive in a falling crude oil price environment.

Stock Market

The EM "Trap"

We expect EM valuations will undercut their 2008 lows before the current market decline has run its course. That washout might serve up the best stock market bargains in many years.
Equity Strategies

Small/Micro Cap Biotechnology: Still Richly Valued

Despite the group’s big losses since May, the results show Small/Micro Cap Biotechs are still richly valued. As market volatility heats up, this group faces additional downside risk.

Table of Contents

Stock Market

Of Special Interest

Macro Monitor

Equity Strategies

Quant

Market Internals

Portfolios

Major Trend

Estimating the Downside

At Random

Interested in Investing in a Model?

Contact us if you are interested in investing in our ETF models.
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