Green Book February 2015
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Featured Articles
Losing Our Voice
In a cyclical bull market as long and strong as the current one, it’s certainly possible the topping process will be proportionally lengthy and deceptive.
Early Thoughts On The Next Bear
We expect a “garden variety” cyclical bear market to break out this year or early next year and present a chart demonstrating the potential path of decline. In the context of the last two decades’ market action, a decline of this variety does not “look” all that significant.
A Few Thoughts (And A Lot Of Charts) On The Oil Collapse
Has the recent collapse in crude oil prices presented us with a good opportunity for an outright commodity investment? No. Energy stocks aren’t on our radar screen either.
Airlines Remain Attractive And Still Have Positive Fundamental Story
Even after several years of relative outperformance, Airlines currently ranks fourth highest among the 115 groups we track. Our confidence is supported by the compelling fundamental story. Management has been making disciplined decisions in the face of rising demand and falling fuel prices.
U.S. Interest Rates & Credits—Keep An Open Mind
The ease with which the 10-year yield broke the strong 185 bps barrier was simply too hard to ignore. This tells us interest rates will likely go lower before going higher. The current active range is 140-185.
Cheap Energy—Which Industries Benefit The Most?
It’s more complicated than one would think. Besides input costs, one must consider the impact on revenues, and whether various pricing differentials come into play.
EU QE - Success Highly Uncertain
We rely on past experiences in Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. to give us clues about the future path of the EU QE.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Losing Our Voice
- Canary In The Coal Mine?
- 2015 Leadership: An Early Take
- Early Thoughts On The Next Bear
- Millions Of Citizens Become “One-Percenters…”
- Capex, Capacity And The Dollar
Of Special Interest
- A Few Thoughts (And A Lot Of Charts) On The Oil Collapse
- A Look At The Impact Of Lower Energy Prices On Countries
Macro Monitor
- U.S. Interest Rates & Credits—Keep An Open Mind
- EU QE - Success Highly Uncertain
- Risk Aversion Index—Stays On “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Airlines Remain Attractive And Still Have Positive Fundamental Story
- Cheap Energy—Which Industries Benefit The Most?
- Selected Attractive Groups
Quant
Market Internals
Major Trend
Estimating the Downside
At Random
Losing Our Voice
In a cyclical bull market as long and strong as the current one, it’s certainly possible the topping process will be proportionally lengthy and deceptive.
Early Thoughts On The Next Bear
We expect a “garden variety” cyclical bear market to break out this year or early next year and present a chart demonstrating the potential path of decline. In the context of the last two decades’ market action, a decline of this variety does not “look” all that significant.
A Few Thoughts (And A Lot Of Charts) On The Oil Collapse
Has the recent collapse in crude oil prices presented us with a good opportunity for an outright commodity investment? No. Energy stocks aren’t on our radar screen either.
Airlines Remain Attractive And Still Have Positive Fundamental Story
Even after several years of relative outperformance, Airlines currently ranks fourth highest among the 115 groups we track. Our confidence is supported by the compelling fundamental story. Management has been making disciplined decisions in the face of rising demand and falling fuel prices.
U.S. Interest Rates & Credits—Keep An Open Mind
The ease with which the 10-year yield broke the strong 185 bps barrier was simply too hard to ignore. This tells us interest rates will likely go lower before going higher. The current active range is 140-185.
Cheap Energy—Which Industries Benefit The Most?
It’s more complicated than one would think. Besides input costs, one must consider the impact on revenues, and whether various pricing differentials come into play.
EU QE - Success Highly Uncertain
We rely on past experiences in Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. to give us clues about the future path of the EU QE.
Stock Market
- Losing Our Voice
- Canary In The Coal Mine?
- 2015 Leadership: An Early Take
- Early Thoughts On The Next Bear
- Millions Of Citizens Become “One-Percenters…”
- Capex, Capacity And The Dollar
Of Special Interest
- A Few Thoughts (And A Lot Of Charts) On The Oil Collapse
- A Look At The Impact Of Lower Energy Prices On Countries
Macro Monitor
- U.S. Interest Rates & Credits—Keep An Open Mind
- EU QE - Success Highly Uncertain
- Risk Aversion Index—Stays On “Higher Risk” Signal
- US Bonds
Equity Strategies
- Airlines Remain Attractive And Still Have Positive Fundamental Story
- Cheap Energy—Which Industries Benefit The Most?
- Selected Attractive Groups