Green Book April 2015

Charts That Challenge Us…

While our disciplines continue to turn up enough bullish evidence to keep us cautiously positive toward stocks, we are seeing troubling signs by cyclicals (especially the Transports) and junk bonds.

What The Market Tells Us About Fed Policy

Poor performance in 2014 by two typical victims of Fed tightening—Consumer Discretionary and Small Caps—corroborated our argument that “tapering” is tightening.

Profit Margins At The Sector Level

A look at profitability trends at the broad sector level; only Utilities and Telecom Services are experiencing levels below their long-term medians.

U.S. 10-Year: Many Reasons To Be Patient

From a price action perspective, the drop below the 50-day moving average and the failed higher-high, higher-low pattern are not supportive of an imminent up-turn in interest rates.

Can Consumer Discretionary Relative Strength Continue?

Despite this sector’s extended outperformance, we think this trend may persist in the near term as Discretionary industry groups look increasingly attractive within our group work. Keeping an eye on the Fed Funds rate is key, however.

China A-Shares: Market Getting Too Hot?

Our long term view towards China is positive (especially relative to other large EM countries), but short term, we see signs of the A-shares segment overheating and caution against near term corrections.

Circling Sharks From Bob Kargenian, TABR Capital Management

Two Great White Sharks spied the survivors of a sunken ship treading water in the middle of the ocean.

Let’s Go! While We’re Still Young!

Just ask anyone sitting through the third pitching change of an inning—baseball has a pace of play problem.

New Confidence From Pete “Snake” Johnson, Friend Of The Firm

A woman decided to have a facelift for her 50th birthday.

Sven And Ole Go On Unemployment

Two Norwegians who worked at the garment factory in Hibbing were laid off.

The Fishing Trip From Bob Kargenian, TABR Capital Management

Four guys have gone on the same fishing trip for many years...

The Incredible Rickey Henderson

Rickey Henderson, the all-time leader in runs scored and stolen bases (50% more than Lou Brock!), was one of the more colorful characters in baseball. Here are a few favorite Rickey stories.

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