Green Book April 2013
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Featured Articles
"Muddle Through"
The global economy is stuck in a “muddle through” mode with developed and emerging countries showing divergence in terms of leading indicators. Despite this divergence, they share one thing in common: an upturn in inflation. How much more room there is for easing is a key determinant of asset market performance.
A Techno-Fundamental Take On The World
At 15.8x Normalized EPS, the non-U.S. developed world (measured by the MSCI World Ex USA Index) still hasn’t managed to recover to its old lows of 18x seen in both 1992 and 2002.
Fund Flows Still Not Quite As They Appear
In this report we take an in-depth look at the evolution of the industry, particularly the U.S. mutual fund industry, to help understand how some fund flow trends are more of an indication of evolving investor preferences instead of an indication of retail investor sentiment toward a particular asset class.
Nothing But Clear Blue Skies Ahead? We're Not So Sure
With no obvious technical resistance left for the U.S. stock market, we’re skeptical of the “long cycle” view, primarily based on valuations and “provincial” data points.
Q1 Review of Group Selection (GS) Scores
After a recent rough patch due to a multitude of factors (macro driven markets, high correlations, etc.), our domestic Group Selection (GS) Scores started seeing more consistent performance during the fall of 2012. This continued through the first quarter of this year, with the Attractive to Unattractive return spread at +3.0% year-to-date.
Quality As An Investable Stock Selection Concept
In this note, we discuss our market-level measure of quality, and highlight an expanded methodology for determining the “quality” of a stock and the performance implications associated with such a concept.
The Fed: The First Hundred Years
If you think being “sequestered” or “Cyprussed” is no fun, turn the calendar back a century. 1913 saw the authorization of the Federal Reserve System and the ratification of the income tax amendment to the Constitution. (CNBC’s Rick Santelli would have been apoplectic.)
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Nothing But Clear Blue Skies Ahead? We're Not So Sure
- The Fed: The First Hundred Years
- A Techno-Fundamental Take On The World
- Quality As An Investable Stock Selection Concept
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
"Muddle Through"
The global economy is stuck in a “muddle through” mode with developed and emerging countries showing divergence in terms of leading indicators. Despite this divergence, they share one thing in common: an upturn in inflation. How much more room there is for easing is a key determinant of asset market performance.
A Techno-Fundamental Take On The World
At 15.8x Normalized EPS, the non-U.S. developed world (measured by the MSCI World Ex USA Index) still hasn’t managed to recover to its old lows of 18x seen in both 1992 and 2002.
Fund Flows Still Not Quite As They Appear
In this report we take an in-depth look at the evolution of the industry, particularly the U.S. mutual fund industry, to help understand how some fund flow trends are more of an indication of evolving investor preferences instead of an indication of retail investor sentiment toward a particular asset class.
Nothing But Clear Blue Skies Ahead? We're Not So Sure
With no obvious technical resistance left for the U.S. stock market, we’re skeptical of the “long cycle” view, primarily based on valuations and “provincial” data points.
Q1 Review of Group Selection (GS) Scores
After a recent rough patch due to a multitude of factors (macro driven markets, high correlations, etc.), our domestic Group Selection (GS) Scores started seeing more consistent performance during the fall of 2012. This continued through the first quarter of this year, with the Attractive to Unattractive return spread at +3.0% year-to-date.
Quality As An Investable Stock Selection Concept
In this note, we discuss our market-level measure of quality, and highlight an expanded methodology for determining the “quality” of a stock and the performance implications associated with such a concept.
The Fed: The First Hundred Years
If you think being “sequestered” or “Cyprussed” is no fun, turn the calendar back a century. 1913 saw the authorization of the Federal Reserve System and the ratification of the income tax amendment to the Constitution. (CNBC’s Rick Santelli would have been apoplectic.)
Stock Market
- Nothing But Clear Blue Skies Ahead? We're Not So Sure
- The Fed: The First Hundred Years
- A Techno-Fundamental Take On The World
- Quality As An Investable Stock Selection Concept