Green Book October 2012
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Featured Articles
Bernanke’s Bad Timing
We can’t imagine what good could come from Ben Bernanke’s September 13th decision to resume money printing. What is the Fed going to do if another risk event hits and the S&P goes down 15-20%? Pray?
Bulls, Bears & The Buck
Our latest testing indicates that relative dollar stability provides the best backdrop for stocks.
Cash In On Electronic Payment Systems
A preview of a forthcoming In Focus Special Study that examines the opportunities - both domestic and global - in the groups involved with processing credit card transactions.
Chasing Income That Barely Exists
Those adopting LDI today are doing so at the least opportune time in more than 60 years.
Fund Flows Not Quite As They Appear
Despite flows out of U.S. focus equity mutual funds, investors remain heavily invested there; while dollars flood into bond funds, they’re also flowing into other varieties of equity funds.
Gold: Twelve Years And Going Strong
A textbook, commodity-like top in gold would be a panicky, spiky event that would take the metal well above $2000.
Inflation Turned Higher In August
The non-seasonally adjusted CPI jumped 0.6% in August, matching the market consensus.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings: Starting To Favor Low Quality
Our Stock Quality Ranking work currently shows stocks with low quality rankings outperforming those with high quality rankings.
Market Dynamics: 2012 Sector Performance; Leverage Pays
In our framework, Health Care is the number one performer year-to-date by almost five percentage points.
QE3 Is Ill-timed And Should’ve Been Saved For A Greater Risk Event
What is the Fed going to do if another risk event hits and the S&P goes down 15-20%? Pray?
Stock Market Observations
The U.S. bull market is mature and I believe the odds are better than even that 2013 will see a cyclical top.
Ten Charts To Chew On
There are twelve critical indexes (using Big Ten math) that have failed to “confirm” September’s new cyclical bull market highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials.
Thirty Percentage Points Of Pain…
The S&P 500 is now up 30% from last year’s October 4th low - a rally that surely ranks among the least enjoyable and least exploited gain of that magnitude in history.
Time To Bet On China?
Is it time to reverse the “long U.S. consumer/short China” trade?
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Thirty Percentage Points Of Pain…
- Stock Market Observations
- Bernanke’s Bad Timing
- Ten Charts To Chew On
- Time To Bet On China?
- Chasing Income That Barely Exists
- Bulls, Bears & The Buck
- Gold: Twelve Years And Going Strong
- Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings: Starting To Favor Low Quality
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Inflation Watch
Bernanke’s Bad Timing
We can’t imagine what good could come from Ben Bernanke’s September 13th decision to resume money printing. What is the Fed going to do if another risk event hits and the S&P goes down 15-20%? Pray?
Bulls, Bears & The Buck
Our latest testing indicates that relative dollar stability provides the best backdrop for stocks.
Cash In On Electronic Payment Systems
A preview of a forthcoming In Focus Special Study that examines the opportunities - both domestic and global - in the groups involved with processing credit card transactions.
Chasing Income That Barely Exists
Those adopting LDI today are doing so at the least opportune time in more than 60 years.
Fund Flows Not Quite As They Appear
Despite flows out of U.S. focus equity mutual funds, investors remain heavily invested there; while dollars flood into bond funds, they’re also flowing into other varieties of equity funds.
Gold: Twelve Years And Going Strong
A textbook, commodity-like top in gold would be a panicky, spiky event that would take the metal well above $2000.
Inflation Turned Higher In August
The non-seasonally adjusted CPI jumped 0.6% in August, matching the market consensus.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings: Starting To Favor Low Quality
Our Stock Quality Ranking work currently shows stocks with low quality rankings outperforming those with high quality rankings.
Market Dynamics: 2012 Sector Performance; Leverage Pays
In our framework, Health Care is the number one performer year-to-date by almost five percentage points.
QE3 Is Ill-timed And Should’ve Been Saved For A Greater Risk Event
What is the Fed going to do if another risk event hits and the S&P goes down 15-20%? Pray?
Stock Market Observations
The U.S. bull market is mature and I believe the odds are better than even that 2013 will see a cyclical top.
Ten Charts To Chew On
There are twelve critical indexes (using Big Ten math) that have failed to “confirm” September’s new cyclical bull market highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials.
Thirty Percentage Points Of Pain…
The S&P 500 is now up 30% from last year’s October 4th low - a rally that surely ranks among the least enjoyable and least exploited gain of that magnitude in history.
Time To Bet On China?
Is it time to reverse the “long U.S. consumer/short China” trade?
Stock Market
- Thirty Percentage Points Of Pain…
- Stock Market Observations
- Bernanke’s Bad Timing
- Ten Charts To Chew On
- Time To Bet On China?
- Chasing Income That Barely Exists
- Bulls, Bears & The Buck
- Gold: Twelve Years And Going Strong
- Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings: Starting To Favor Low Quality