Green Book July 2012
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Featured Articles
A Closer Look At Growth And Value Return Differences
Traditional Fama/French analysis shows an exceptionally large 4% per annum return edge favoring Value. Based on Russell 1000 Growth and Value Indexes, however, the edge in favor of Value has been a fraction of that. Current year’s Growth outperformance is also dissected to determine the likelihood this leadership will persist.
An “Old” Bull Market… That Should Get “Older”
The bull market is increasingly showing signs of advanced age, but that is only to be expected for a move that now measures 40 months off its March 2009 low.
Automotive Retail: Attractive, But Fundamental Divergence
Automotive Retail Group rated Attractive, but consider the fundamental divergence between the two subsets of stocks included. Expect Auto Parts/Service Providers to remain strong; with Auto Dealers outlook less favorable.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings
Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during the last quarter.
Quant Factors Ineffective During June
Insider buying and selling is the only factor that worked during June.
Risk Aversion Sharply Lower—But Optimistically Cautious
We remain optimistically cautious, as we believe the determination of the policy makers to prop up the market should not be underestimated, especially in an election year.
U.S. Home Price Indexes Dissected
With a number of Housing-related stock groups remaining in the Attractive range, various Home Price Index (HPI) methodologies are dissected to better understand the data included.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Risk Aversion Sharply Lower—But Optimistically Cautious
- Bi-Modal Or Middle Of The Road—We Think The Latter
- 2012 Time Cycle—Mid Year Update
Equity Strategies
Quant
A Closer Look At Growth And Value Return Differences
Traditional Fama/French analysis shows an exceptionally large 4% per annum return edge favoring Value. Based on Russell 1000 Growth and Value Indexes, however, the edge in favor of Value has been a fraction of that. Current year’s Growth outperformance is also dissected to determine the likelihood this leadership will persist.
An “Old” Bull Market… That Should Get “Older”
The bull market is increasingly showing signs of advanced age, but that is only to be expected for a move that now measures 40 months off its March 2009 low.
Automotive Retail: Attractive, But Fundamental Divergence
Automotive Retail Group rated Attractive, but consider the fundamental divergence between the two subsets of stocks included. Expect Auto Parts/Service Providers to remain strong; with Auto Dealers outlook less favorable.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings
Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during the last quarter.
Quant Factors Ineffective During June
Insider buying and selling is the only factor that worked during June.
Risk Aversion Sharply Lower—But Optimistically Cautious
We remain optimistically cautious, as we believe the determination of the policy makers to prop up the market should not be underestimated, especially in an election year.
U.S. Home Price Indexes Dissected
With a number of Housing-related stock groups remaining in the Attractive range, various Home Price Index (HPI) methodologies are dissected to better understand the data included.
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Risk Aversion Sharply Lower—But Optimistically Cautious
- Bi-Modal Or Middle Of The Road—We Think The Latter
- 2012 Time Cycle—Mid Year Update