Green Book February 2012
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter
Leuthold Advisors Newsletter subscriptions include a no-obligation 14-day trial. Cancel at any time before the 14 days are over and you will not be billed.
Subscribe nowLogin
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Featured Articles
Are We Bullish Enough?
A response to why we are not yet committing to maximum 70% equity exposure in our tactical strategies.
China’s 12th ‘Five-Year Plan’ and the Healthy Tigers Index
Leuthold’s Jun Zhu provides an update on China’s latest Five-Year Plan and how it may affect the Pharmaceutical industry in China.
Global Perspective On 2012 Earnings, Sales, and Margins
Leuthold’s Eric Weigel dissects earnings, sales and margin expectations for the coming year.
Interest Rate Expectations
In the near term, U.S. interest rates are expected to be range-bound, and we remain neutral on the U.S. yield curve. Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell again in January, and remains on a “lower risk” signal.
January Performance: Reversals Everywhere
January performance was nearly opposite that of 2011… Shifts in factor performance and volatility are discussed.
Major Trend Index: Huge Bullish Improvement
Major Trend Index posted an impressive jump to even higher ground during January, and the most recent bullish reading lands at 1.54 versus the reading of 1.12 recorded at the end of December.
New Position In Select Industries Equity Portfolio
An addition of a second Industrial group to the portfolio, this group appealed for a number of reasons including a strong GS Score and continued demand stemming from its geographic diversification and broad customer base.
Predictions for 2012…
From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.
Reported Inflation Should Be Muted In 2012
For 2012, the reported CPI is expected to slip down to the +2% area (although items like lunches, transportation, parking and food may continue rising at close to a 10% rate).
Up Market In January = Up Year??
As January goes, so goes the year. 2012 looks like it could well be an up year for stocks based on the January barometer. Market cycle chart from 1958 also says 2012 will be the “time to buy.”
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Up Market In January = Up Year??
- Are We Bullish Enough?
- Major Trend Index: Huge Bullish Improvement
- Global Perspective On 2012 Earnings, Sales, and Margins
- China’s 12th ‘Five-Year Plan’ and the Healthy Tigers Index
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Inflation Watch
Are We Bullish Enough?
A response to why we are not yet committing to maximum 70% equity exposure in our tactical strategies.
China’s 12th ‘Five-Year Plan’ and the Healthy Tigers Index
Leuthold’s Jun Zhu provides an update on China’s latest Five-Year Plan and how it may affect the Pharmaceutical industry in China.
Global Perspective On 2012 Earnings, Sales, and Margins
Leuthold’s Eric Weigel dissects earnings, sales and margin expectations for the coming year.
Interest Rate Expectations
In the near term, U.S. interest rates are expected to be range-bound, and we remain neutral on the U.S. yield curve. Bond Market Risk Aversion Index fell again in January, and remains on a “lower risk” signal.
January Performance: Reversals Everywhere
January performance was nearly opposite that of 2011… Shifts in factor performance and volatility are discussed.
Major Trend Index: Huge Bullish Improvement
Major Trend Index posted an impressive jump to even higher ground during January, and the most recent bullish reading lands at 1.54 versus the reading of 1.12 recorded at the end of December.
New Position In Select Industries Equity Portfolio
An addition of a second Industrial group to the portfolio, this group appealed for a number of reasons including a strong GS Score and continued demand stemming from its geographic diversification and broad customer base.
Predictions for 2012…
From the stock market to politics to football, Doug Ramsey offers up ten predictions and thoughts for the New Year…. Even though we’ve already had a one month “peek” at 2012.
Reported Inflation Should Be Muted In 2012
For 2012, the reported CPI is expected to slip down to the +2% area (although items like lunches, transportation, parking and food may continue rising at close to a 10% rate).
Up Market In January = Up Year??
As January goes, so goes the year. 2012 looks like it could well be an up year for stocks based on the January barometer. Market cycle chart from 1958 also says 2012 will be the “time to buy.”
Stock Market
- Up Market In January = Up Year??
- Are We Bullish Enough?
- Major Trend Index: Huge Bullish Improvement
- Global Perspective On 2012 Earnings, Sales, and Margins
- China’s 12th ‘Five-Year Plan’ and the Healthy Tigers Index