Green Book December 2012
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Featured Articles
An “All-Clear” Signal From Retailers?
Retail stocks barely paused during the September-November market setback, and have lately shot to new all-time relative strength (RS) highs. We were recently asked whether this bullish behavior was effectively an “inoculation” against falling into recession over the near term.
Factor In Focus: Asset Growth Identifies Lack Of Capital Discipline
Asset growth is a factor that gets some attention, but not nearly as much as other more mainstream factors like price to earnings, earnings growth, etc.
MTI Slips To Neutral… Now What?
While we don’t know which direction it will head next, we break down a few of the MTI categories and present some of our observations.
No Big Change — Inflation Remains Moderate
The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was essentially flat in October, in line with market expectations.
Playing The Bounce: November Screen
Our annual screen presents the candidates with the largest declines and smallest rebounds, thus far, in each market cap segment.
Select Industries Takes Flight With The Airlines
This group has been Attractive since March, and currently ranks fourth in our Group Scoring model. We think an improving fundamental story, coupled with a strong GS Score, is emerging from this ravaged industry.
The Outlook For Commodity Stocks
Energy looks cheaper and appears much more washed out from a sentiment perspective. Contrarians looking for commodity exposure should favor this sector over Materials.
The State Of Interest Rates
We think interest rates will stay low for an extended period of time, so the key question is, when will rates start rising?
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- MTI Slips To Neutral… Now What?
- An “All-Clear” Signal From Retailers?
- Playing The Bounce: November Screen
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Inflation Watch
An “All-Clear” Signal From Retailers?
Retail stocks barely paused during the September-November market setback, and have lately shot to new all-time relative strength (RS) highs. We were recently asked whether this bullish behavior was effectively an “inoculation” against falling into recession over the near term.
Factor In Focus: Asset Growth Identifies Lack Of Capital Discipline
Asset growth is a factor that gets some attention, but not nearly as much as other more mainstream factors like price to earnings, earnings growth, etc.
MTI Slips To Neutral… Now What?
While we don’t know which direction it will head next, we break down a few of the MTI categories and present some of our observations.
No Big Change — Inflation Remains Moderate
The non-seasonally adjusted CPI was essentially flat in October, in line with market expectations.
Playing The Bounce: November Screen
Our annual screen presents the candidates with the largest declines and smallest rebounds, thus far, in each market cap segment.
Select Industries Takes Flight With The Airlines
This group has been Attractive since March, and currently ranks fourth in our Group Scoring model. We think an improving fundamental story, coupled with a strong GS Score, is emerging from this ravaged industry.
The Outlook For Commodity Stocks
Energy looks cheaper and appears much more washed out from a sentiment perspective. Contrarians looking for commodity exposure should favor this sector over Materials.
The State Of Interest Rates
We think interest rates will stay low for an extended period of time, so the key question is, when will rates start rising?
Stock Market
- MTI Slips To Neutral… Now What?
- An “All-Clear” Signal From Retailers?
- Playing The Bounce: November Screen