Green Book September 2011
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Featured Articles
Another Swoon Coming
Several U.S. indexes and world stock markets have already lost 20% or more from recent peaks, satisfying the parameter for a bear market.
China Investing: Segment Valuation May Converge
Interesting development coming out of China recently that is getting little attention. The Chinese government is planning to allow ETFs with Hong Kong listed companies as underlying securities to be traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges.
Correlations: Hitting Record Highs
Industry groups and stocks are now trading at record correlations.
Golden Milestone
The yellow metal itself celebrated 40 years of “independence” by pulling ahead of the S&P 500 on a cumulative, total return basis since the gold window was closed.
It Is All About Confidence
As we expected, the U.S. downgrade was digested by the market fairly quickly and attention turned to the economy. This is a bear market in confidence, more than anything else.
Lost Confidence In Washington….. But Not U.S. Treasuries
The new deal reached by Congress has little substance and no impact at all until 2014 or beyond. More “kick the can down the road.” Long term debt/deficit issues remain unsolved.
Recession Or No Recession? That ISN’T The Question
Doug Ramsey provides an analysis of non-recession related bear markets. Historically, non-recession related markets are shorter in duration than recession induced bear markets, but the decline is essentially the same magnitude.
Sector Level Profit Margins: Q2 Update
An examination of both near term and longer term historical profit margins broken out by sectors is presented in this month’s “Of Special Interest” section.
Six Month Readings Look More Favorable Than Twelve Month Readings
In all of the primary inflation measures monitored in our Inflation Watch publication, the six month rates of change moved lower in July. For the most part, the twelve month readings have continued to rise. This action is likely pointing to diminishing inflation pressures for the months ahead.
Volatility—A Beast Worth Befriending Or An Enemy To Shield Away?
Better understanding the behavior of equity market volatility is a prerequisite for making improved decisions either as a way to profit directly from the changing nature of volatility, or as a way to hedge equity market exposure.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Another Swoon Coming
- Golden Milestone
- Recession Or No Recession? That ISN’T The Question
- China Investing: Segment Valuation May Converge
- Volatility—A Beast Worth Befriending Or An Enemy To Shield Away?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Quant
Inflation Watch
Another Swoon Coming
Several U.S. indexes and world stock markets have already lost 20% or more from recent peaks, satisfying the parameter for a bear market.
China Investing: Segment Valuation May Converge
Interesting development coming out of China recently that is getting little attention. The Chinese government is planning to allow ETFs with Hong Kong listed companies as underlying securities to be traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges.
Correlations: Hitting Record Highs
Industry groups and stocks are now trading at record correlations.
Golden Milestone
The yellow metal itself celebrated 40 years of “independence” by pulling ahead of the S&P 500 on a cumulative, total return basis since the gold window was closed.
It Is All About Confidence
As we expected, the U.S. downgrade was digested by the market fairly quickly and attention turned to the economy. This is a bear market in confidence, more than anything else.
Lost Confidence In Washington….. But Not U.S. Treasuries
The new deal reached by Congress has little substance and no impact at all until 2014 or beyond. More “kick the can down the road.” Long term debt/deficit issues remain unsolved.
Recession Or No Recession? That ISN’T The Question
Doug Ramsey provides an analysis of non-recession related bear markets. Historically, non-recession related markets are shorter in duration than recession induced bear markets, but the decline is essentially the same magnitude.
Sector Level Profit Margins: Q2 Update
An examination of both near term and longer term historical profit margins broken out by sectors is presented in this month’s “Of Special Interest” section.
Six Month Readings Look More Favorable Than Twelve Month Readings
In all of the primary inflation measures monitored in our Inflation Watch publication, the six month rates of change moved lower in July. For the most part, the twelve month readings have continued to rise. This action is likely pointing to diminishing inflation pressures for the months ahead.
Volatility—A Beast Worth Befriending Or An Enemy To Shield Away?
Better understanding the behavior of equity market volatility is a prerequisite for making improved decisions either as a way to profit directly from the changing nature of volatility, or as a way to hedge equity market exposure.
Stock Market
- Another Swoon Coming
- Golden Milestone
- Recession Or No Recession? That ISN’T The Question
- China Investing: Segment Valuation May Converge
- Volatility—A Beast Worth Befriending Or An Enemy To Shield Away?