Green Book May 2011
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Featured Articles
Adding Aluminum: Initiating Exposure To Materials Sector
Select Industries portfolio has added new equity group holdings in Aluminum, initiating sector exposure in Materials.
Adding Department Stores: Exploiting The Wealth Effect
Select Industries portfolio has added new equity group holdings in Department Stores, boosting sector exposure in Consumer Discretionary.
April Factor Performance: Talk About Boring
Very little to show for a month of solid market performance. Breaking the market down by capitalization yields some interesting results.
Dow Performance: A Matter Of Weighting...
Are the Dow Industrials benefiting from trivial weighting? Slicing our Leuthold 3000 universe into market cap deciles shows different performance results than commonly followed market indices.
Emerging Market Indicators Study—Emerging Market Fund Flow
Jun Zhu examines the use of Emerging Market Mutual Fund Flow as a sentiment indicator. It works best as a buy signal, but is not bad as a sell signal. Currently neither on a buy or sell.
In Solar, The Vertically Integrated Shall Thrive
Dave Kurzman, Leuthold Clean Tech guru, outlines the solar companies which are in the best and worst positions for potential mergers or acquisitions.
Inflation & Economic Slack?
U.S. capacity utilization rate is more than four percentage points below the magic 82% threshold, yet factory pricing pressures are already through the roof.
Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident
All three PPI measures have their six month rates of change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.
Markets (Mostly) In Gear
Market in gear, with almost all market indices hitting new highs in tandem. Would be unusual for a market correction with this type of uniformity.
Sell In May? We Might, If Only Temporarily
Don’t expect a summer swoon, but stocks may make little progress until fall. Most of our bull market targets discussed in 2009—early 2010 have been achieved with the exception of a return to median bull market peaks based on normalized earnings (only 1.5% away).
Selling In May: A Market Maxim That Won’t Go Away!
This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a stab at debunking the “Sell In May And Go Away” anomaly. Instead, we have come to respect this annual strategy.
The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is This Cheap Money Era Ending?
An orderly decline of the dollar is not necessarily a big concern. On the other hand, a sudden collapse of the dollar, in conjunction with spiking U.S. interest rates, would be a terrible thing. So far this has not been the case.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Sell In May? We Might, If Only Temporarily
- Markets (Mostly) In Gear
- Inflation & Economic Slack?
- In Solar, The Vertically Integrated Shall Thrive
- Emerging Market Indicators Study—Emerging Market Fund Flow
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Adding Department Stores: Exploiting The Wealth Effect
- Adding Aluminum: Initiating Exposure To Materials Sector
Quant
Inflation Watch
Adding Aluminum: Initiating Exposure To Materials Sector
Select Industries portfolio has added new equity group holdings in Aluminum, initiating sector exposure in Materials.
Adding Department Stores: Exploiting The Wealth Effect
Select Industries portfolio has added new equity group holdings in Department Stores, boosting sector exposure in Consumer Discretionary.
April Factor Performance: Talk About Boring
Very little to show for a month of solid market performance. Breaking the market down by capitalization yields some interesting results.
Dow Performance: A Matter Of Weighting...
Are the Dow Industrials benefiting from trivial weighting? Slicing our Leuthold 3000 universe into market cap deciles shows different performance results than commonly followed market indices.
Emerging Market Indicators Study—Emerging Market Fund Flow
Jun Zhu examines the use of Emerging Market Mutual Fund Flow as a sentiment indicator. It works best as a buy signal, but is not bad as a sell signal. Currently neither on a buy or sell.
In Solar, The Vertically Integrated Shall Thrive
Dave Kurzman, Leuthold Clean Tech guru, outlines the solar companies which are in the best and worst positions for potential mergers or acquisitions.
Inflation & Economic Slack?
U.S. capacity utilization rate is more than four percentage points below the magic 82% threshold, yet factory pricing pressures are already through the roof.
Inflation Pressures Becoming More Evident
All three PPI measures have their six month rates of change well above the 12 month rates, so the trend points toward even higher inflation ahead.
Markets (Mostly) In Gear
Market in gear, with almost all market indices hitting new highs in tandem. Would be unusual for a market correction with this type of uniformity.
Sell In May? We Might, If Only Temporarily
Don’t expect a summer swoon, but stocks may make little progress until fall. Most of our bull market targets discussed in 2009—early 2010 have been achieved with the exception of a return to median bull market peaks based on normalized earnings (only 1.5% away).
Selling In May: A Market Maxim That Won’t Go Away!
This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a stab at debunking the “Sell In May And Go Away” anomaly. Instead, we have come to respect this annual strategy.
The Bond Bubble Is Beginning To Deflate… Is This Cheap Money Era Ending?
An orderly decline of the dollar is not necessarily a big concern. On the other hand, a sudden collapse of the dollar, in conjunction with spiking U.S. interest rates, would be a terrible thing. So far this has not been the case.
Stock Market
- Sell In May? We Might, If Only Temporarily
- Markets (Mostly) In Gear
- Inflation & Economic Slack?
- In Solar, The Vertically Integrated Shall Thrive
- Emerging Market Indicators Study—Emerging Market Fund Flow
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Adding Department Stores: Exploiting The Wealth Effect
- Adding Aluminum: Initiating Exposure To Materials Sector