Green Book July 2011
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Featured Articles
And Now For Something Completely Contrary
Stock markets across much of Europe are priced cheaply enough that investors might need very little incentive to get in, attempting to reap respectable returns.
Inflation Pressures Continuing To Heat Up...Boosted Year End Projections
CPI rose 0.5% in May (before seasonal adjustments), down from April’s +0.6% monthly increase.
Is Steel a Steal?...Select Industries New Group Initiation
A small position in Steel was established in late June to increase our exposure to the top ranked Materials sector.
June 2011 Factor Performance
The month of June brought more of the same, with profitability, size and momentum continuing to work reasonably well.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
High Quality Stocks outperformed their Low Quality comparators in the second quarter, and we find signs that a new High Quality Cycle is starting to take off.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
$4.8 trillion of the additional $9 trillion in debt that Uncle Sam is expected to incur over the next decade is interest obligation.
Mid-Year Target Practice
It’s been quite awhile since we’ve engaged in target practice (... and considering my 20/300 vision, the world is a much safer place for it).
Profiting From The Boom In Domestic Natural Gas Production
Looking to profit from the boom in domestic natural gas production? Dave Kurzman examines the opportunities and potential pitfalls in Shale gas, and finds some viable investment opportunities, but urges caution.
Risk Aversion Index Says “Wait And See”
The Monthly Risk Aversion Index edged down slightly in June, pausing for a clearer direction. The biggest contributors of risk are commodities and credit spreads.
Risk Premium For Stocks Making A Comeback
The risk premium for stocks is making a comeback. Our quarterly examination of the stock/bond performance differential finds ten-year Treasuries are now the riskier asset class compared to equities.
Sector Valuation Review: A Top-Down Look At Risks And Opportunities
“Of Special Interest” takes a look at sector valuations through the lens of our GS Scores.
Variable Interest Entity Structure In Chinese Companies
Jun Zhu examines Chinese companies with Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structures. Investors shouldn’t be completely turned off by concerns over these structures, but it would be wise to heed the risks.
Yet Another Breadth Blastoff
Another breadth blastoff gives us reasons for optimism that our bullish predictions for the end of the year will hold.
“Just Another” Soft Patch
MTI studies of market values, investor psychology and price action have (so far) overwhelmed the economic “elephants in the room.” A few thoughts on those elephants.
“Just Another” Summer Correction
After annual summer correction re-run, we believe the market swoon is over, having produced a garden variety correction of -7.2%.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- “Just Another” Summer Correction
- “Just Another” Soft Patch
- Yet Another Breadth Blastoff
- Mid-Year Target Practice
- And Now For Something Completely Contrary
- Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
- Risk Premium For Stocks Making A Comeback
- Variable Interest Entity Structure In Chinese Companies
- Profiting From The Boom In Domestic Natural Gas Production
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Inflation Watch
And Now For Something Completely Contrary
Stock markets across much of Europe are priced cheaply enough that investors might need very little incentive to get in, attempting to reap respectable returns.
Inflation Pressures Continuing To Heat Up...Boosted Year End Projections
CPI rose 0.5% in May (before seasonal adjustments), down from April’s +0.6% monthly increase.
Is Steel a Steal?...Select Industries New Group Initiation
A small position in Steel was established in late June to increase our exposure to the top ranked Materials sector.
June 2011 Factor Performance
The month of June brought more of the same, with profitability, size and momentum continuing to work reasonably well.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
High Quality Stocks outperformed their Low Quality comparators in the second quarter, and we find signs that a new High Quality Cycle is starting to take off.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
$4.8 trillion of the additional $9 trillion in debt that Uncle Sam is expected to incur over the next decade is interest obligation.
Mid-Year Target Practice
It’s been quite awhile since we’ve engaged in target practice (... and considering my 20/300 vision, the world is a much safer place for it).
Profiting From The Boom In Domestic Natural Gas Production
Looking to profit from the boom in domestic natural gas production? Dave Kurzman examines the opportunities and potential pitfalls in Shale gas, and finds some viable investment opportunities, but urges caution.
Risk Aversion Index Says “Wait And See”
The Monthly Risk Aversion Index edged down slightly in June, pausing for a clearer direction. The biggest contributors of risk are commodities and credit spreads.
Risk Premium For Stocks Making A Comeback
The risk premium for stocks is making a comeback. Our quarterly examination of the stock/bond performance differential finds ten-year Treasuries are now the riskier asset class compared to equities.
Sector Valuation Review: A Top-Down Look At Risks And Opportunities
“Of Special Interest” takes a look at sector valuations through the lens of our GS Scores.
Variable Interest Entity Structure In Chinese Companies
Jun Zhu examines Chinese companies with Variable Interest Entity (VIE) structures. Investors shouldn’t be completely turned off by concerns over these structures, but it would be wise to heed the risks.
Yet Another Breadth Blastoff
Another breadth blastoff gives us reasons for optimism that our bullish predictions for the end of the year will hold.
“Just Another” Soft Patch
MTI studies of market values, investor psychology and price action have (so far) overwhelmed the economic “elephants in the room.” A few thoughts on those elephants.
“Just Another” Summer Correction
After annual summer correction re-run, we believe the market swoon is over, having produced a garden variety correction of -7.2%.
Stock Market
- “Just Another” Summer Correction
- “Just Another” Soft Patch
- Yet Another Breadth Blastoff
- Mid-Year Target Practice
- And Now For Something Completely Contrary
- Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings—Tracking Quality And Risk Cycles
- Risk Premium For Stocks Making A Comeback
- Variable Interest Entity Structure In Chinese Companies
- Profiting From The Boom In Domestic Natural Gas Production