Green Book August 2011
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Featured Articles
Asia Thematic Investing: Update On Healthy Tigers Index
Chinese Pharmaceuticals have been sold off considerably in recent months, but look very attractive on a valuation basis. There are fundamental problems, but in light of China’s objective of universal health care coverage there is significant upside. See “Healthy Tigers” update in “Inside The Stock Market”.
Factor Performance: Insider Activity Finally Works; Value Continues To Struggle
Insider Activity measures finally additive in July after six months of negative results; other factors’ performance deteriorated, however.
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals—New Portfolio Holding
Select Industries equity portfolio established a new group holding in Fertilizer & Agricultural Chemicals.
Global Groups 3.0
Some steps are being taken to enhance our Global Group framework. This process, which was formally launched in late 2006, is the basis for our Leuthold Global Industries Fund.
It’s The Economy, Stupid
U.S. likely averted worst-case scenario of default, but credit rating downgrade is still likely. Main impact of downgrade is not the increase in interest rates itself, but rather the liquidity risk in all markets that involve treasury securities as collateral.
Jumped The Gun With Boost To PPI Estimate
The July reports showed that both PPI and CPI edged downward in June from May readings.
Losing Confidence In Washington But Not U.S. Treasuries, At Least Not Yet
The inability of our politicians to recognize and resolve short and long term debt/deficit issues has caused many of us to lose even more confidence in Washington.
Major Trend Index (MTI) Goes Negative: Get Defensive
Major Trend Index fell to Negative at beginning of August. Assumption is that we are now in the beginning of a cyclical bear market that may produce a 20%-25% loss within the next six months or so.
Market Interrelationships: “Unlearning” What We Thought We Knew
Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.
Sector Rotation In Emerging Markets
The Leuthold Group has always been a big proponent of sector rotation strategies. In this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section, Jun Zhu examines sector rotation in emerging markets and presents a series of ETFs that facilitate this strategy.
The Bull Market’s Technical “Book Ends”
The 30-point collapse in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, August 2nd completed a bearish H&S pattern that has been several months in the making.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index (MTI) Goes Negative: Get Defensive
- The Bull Market’s Technical “Book Ends”
- Sector Rotation In Emerging Markets
- Asia Thematic Investing: Update On Healthy Tigers Index
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Quant
Inflation Watch
Asia Thematic Investing: Update On Healthy Tigers Index
Chinese Pharmaceuticals have been sold off considerably in recent months, but look very attractive on a valuation basis. There are fundamental problems, but in light of China’s objective of universal health care coverage there is significant upside. See “Healthy Tigers” update in “Inside The Stock Market”.
Factor Performance: Insider Activity Finally Works; Value Continues To Struggle
Insider Activity measures finally additive in July after six months of negative results; other factors’ performance deteriorated, however.
Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals—New Portfolio Holding
Select Industries equity portfolio established a new group holding in Fertilizer & Agricultural Chemicals.
Global Groups 3.0
Some steps are being taken to enhance our Global Group framework. This process, which was formally launched in late 2006, is the basis for our Leuthold Global Industries Fund.
It’s The Economy, Stupid
U.S. likely averted worst-case scenario of default, but credit rating downgrade is still likely. Main impact of downgrade is not the increase in interest rates itself, but rather the liquidity risk in all markets that involve treasury securities as collateral.
Jumped The Gun With Boost To PPI Estimate
The July reports showed that both PPI and CPI edged downward in June from May readings.
Losing Confidence In Washington But Not U.S. Treasuries, At Least Not Yet
The inability of our politicians to recognize and resolve short and long term debt/deficit issues has caused many of us to lose even more confidence in Washington.
Major Trend Index (MTI) Goes Negative: Get Defensive
Major Trend Index fell to Negative at beginning of August. Assumption is that we are now in the beginning of a cyclical bear market that may produce a 20%-25% loss within the next six months or so.
Market Interrelationships: “Unlearning” What We Thought We Knew
Doug Ramsey examines several once very reliable relationships between stocks, bonds, inflation, and commodities.
Sector Rotation In Emerging Markets
The Leuthold Group has always been a big proponent of sector rotation strategies. In this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section, Jun Zhu examines sector rotation in emerging markets and presents a series of ETFs that facilitate this strategy.
The Bull Market’s Technical “Book Ends”
The 30-point collapse in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, August 2nd completed a bearish H&S pattern that has been several months in the making.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index (MTI) Goes Negative: Get Defensive
- The Bull Market’s Technical “Book Ends”
- Sector Rotation In Emerging Markets
- Asia Thematic Investing: Update On Healthy Tigers Index