Green Book May 2010
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Featured Articles
An Open (Yet Purely Theoretical) Letter To Individual Investors
When you are all doing the same thing at the same time, it’s usually a good time to question if the investment makes sense anymore.
Everyone Should Be A Supply Sider!
Analysts typically focus on demand for products and rarely look at the supply side. Consumer Discretionary companies were rewarded for their pessimistic positioning with better pricing and higher margins.
Is It Too Late To Buy The “Early Cyclicals”?
One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.
Liquidity Update: Trends Worth Watching
Helping propel the stock market recovery has been a build-up of excess liquidity. This has now generally been put to use, and can no longer be counted on as a market driver.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles. Moody’s says U.S. debt could test its AAA rating.
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010
The greatest danger in late 2010 and 2011 is monetary debasement inflation, not demand based inflation.
Putting Lipstick On The “PIIGS”
Global Industries equity portfolio has little to no exposure to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) as our Global Group Selection Scores have not led us to industries that have many component stocks domiciled in those countries. However, if this work leads us to groups with heavier exposure to the PIIGS, we’ll buy them without blinking.
Quick Takes From The Valuation Dashboard
Stock market valuations no longer cheap, but they are also not yet truly expensive. Eric Bjorgen isolates several valuation measures to show just where they rank historically
Say Hola To A New Select Industries Portfolio Holding
Adding new Select Industries equity portfolio holding in thematic group called Hispanic Boom, a play on expanding Hispanic population and their increased buying power. This growing demographic will maintain its brand loyalty, and our Hispanic Boom theme has identified several beneficiaries.
The Dreaded ‘Aha’ Moment
One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.
The Sector Effect Vs. The Regional Effect
Focus of global investing has shifted from sector and is now centered on the regional effect.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The Dreaded ‘Aha’ Moment
- Everyone Should Be A Supply Sider!
- Putting Lipstick On The “PIIGS”
- An Open (Yet Purely Theoretical) Letter To Individual Investors
- Quick Takes From The Valuation Dashboard
- Liquidity Update: Trends Worth Watching
- The Sector Effect Vs. The Regional Effect
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
An Open (Yet Purely Theoretical) Letter To Individual Investors
When you are all doing the same thing at the same time, it’s usually a good time to question if the investment makes sense anymore.
Everyone Should Be A Supply Sider!
Analysts typically focus on demand for products and rarely look at the supply side. Consumer Discretionary companies were rewarded for their pessimistic positioning with better pricing and higher margins.
Is It Too Late To Buy The “Early Cyclicals”?
One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.
Liquidity Update: Trends Worth Watching
Helping propel the stock market recovery has been a build-up of excess liquidity. This has now generally been put to use, and can no longer be counted on as a market driver.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
A mountain of new debt, a balloon of short term borrowing due near term, and the likelihood of higher interest rates are big hurdles. Moody’s says U.S. debt could test its AAA rating.
Mild CPI Inflation Expected In 2010
The greatest danger in late 2010 and 2011 is monetary debasement inflation, not demand based inflation.
Putting Lipstick On The “PIIGS”
Global Industries equity portfolio has little to no exposure to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain) as our Global Group Selection Scores have not led us to industries that have many component stocks domiciled in those countries. However, if this work leads us to groups with heavier exposure to the PIIGS, we’ll buy them without blinking.
Quick Takes From The Valuation Dashboard
Stock market valuations no longer cheap, but they are also not yet truly expensive. Eric Bjorgen isolates several valuation measures to show just where they rank historically
Say Hola To A New Select Industries Portfolio Holding
Adding new Select Industries equity portfolio holding in thematic group called Hispanic Boom, a play on expanding Hispanic population and their increased buying power. This growing demographic will maintain its brand loyalty, and our Hispanic Boom theme has identified several beneficiaries.
The Dreaded ‘Aha’ Moment
One of the great contrary trades in recent memory may well have been the Consumer Discretionary stocks during the last recession and early in the recovery. The consumer had been written off, but these stocks have been the clear market leader. It looks, however, like the move may be running out of steam.
The Sector Effect Vs. The Regional Effect
Focus of global investing has shifted from sector and is now centered on the regional effect.
Stock Market
- The Dreaded ‘Aha’ Moment
- Everyone Should Be A Supply Sider!
- Putting Lipstick On The “PIIGS”
- An Open (Yet Purely Theoretical) Letter To Individual Investors
- Quick Takes From The Valuation Dashboard
- Liquidity Update: Trends Worth Watching
- The Sector Effect Vs. The Regional Effect