Green Book January 2010
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Featured Articles
2009 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
Based on loud bearish complaints about the “junk rally”—and our commentary on the Revenge-of-the-Nerds (anti-momentum) effect—it should come as no surprise that 2009 marked the most dramatic reversal of industry leadership we have seen in our twenty-plus years of tracking this work.
2009: Not Monotony, But Close
The 2008 worst performers shot to the head of the class in 2009. History however shows it doesn’t usually pay to buy the prior year’s laggards in hopes of hitting it big the next year.
A Global Perspective On Investor Preference For Top-Line Growth Or Bottom-Line Growth
A look at how the market reveals its preference for the top-line growth (revenue growth) vs. the bottom-line growth (EPS growth).
Asset Allocation: Still Heavy In Equities
Initial outlook for 2010 is to see the S&P 500 rise to 1300 or 1350 during the first half of the year but then give up those gains in the second half of the year. We are counting on the Major Trend Index to help navigate the choppy market.
Equity Fund Flow Trends In 2009… Emerging Markets Is Where It’s At
In 2009, Main Street investors continued to pull money out of U.S. focus equity mutual funds. There were some equity funds that they did embrace…specifically Emerging Country funds.
Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Performance Parity 1979 To Date
Over this entire period, the S&P has narrowly beaten the Russell 2000, but not by much.
Leuthold Commodity Diffusion Index Remains Negative
Like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered, U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher.
Our Outlook For 2019 (...2010 To Come Later)
While most are content to make annual predictions at this time, leave it to Doug Ramsey to bite off an even bigger piece…predicting the next DECADE.
Quant Review 2009…. Value Reigns
Review of quant strategies shows momentum out of favor in 2009, with value factors working best.
Testing The Treasury Bond Yield
The longer term data does suggest that at current interest rate levels, investors can expect sub-par returns over the next 1, 3, and five year timeframes— and we use the term “sub-par” quite literally.
U.S. Stocks: What If The New Decade Is “Normal”?
While most are content to make annual predictions at this time, leave it to Doug Ramsey to bite off an even bigger piece…predicting the next DECADE.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Our Outlook For 2019 (...2010 To Come Later)
- Asset Allocation: Still Heavy In Equities
- 2009: Not Monotony, But Close
- 2009 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
- Equity Fund Flow Trends In 2009… Emerging Markets Is Where It’s At
- A Global Perspective On Investor Preference For Top-Line Growth Or Bottom-Line Growth
- Quant Review 2009…. Value Reigns
- Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Performance Parity 1979 To Date
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
2009 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
Based on loud bearish complaints about the “junk rally”—and our commentary on the Revenge-of-the-Nerds (anti-momentum) effect—it should come as no surprise that 2009 marked the most dramatic reversal of industry leadership we have seen in our twenty-plus years of tracking this work.
2009: Not Monotony, But Close
The 2008 worst performers shot to the head of the class in 2009. History however shows it doesn’t usually pay to buy the prior year’s laggards in hopes of hitting it big the next year.
A Global Perspective On Investor Preference For Top-Line Growth Or Bottom-Line Growth
A look at how the market reveals its preference for the top-line growth (revenue growth) vs. the bottom-line growth (EPS growth).
Asset Allocation: Still Heavy In Equities
Initial outlook for 2010 is to see the S&P 500 rise to 1300 or 1350 during the first half of the year but then give up those gains in the second half of the year. We are counting on the Major Trend Index to help navigate the choppy market.
Equity Fund Flow Trends In 2009… Emerging Markets Is Where It’s At
In 2009, Main Street investors continued to pull money out of U.S. focus equity mutual funds. There were some equity funds that they did embrace…specifically Emerging Country funds.
Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Performance Parity 1979 To Date
Over this entire period, the S&P has narrowly beaten the Russell 2000, but not by much.
Leuthold Commodity Diffusion Index Remains Negative
Like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered, U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher.
Our Outlook For 2019 (...2010 To Come Later)
While most are content to make annual predictions at this time, leave it to Doug Ramsey to bite off an even bigger piece…predicting the next DECADE.
Quant Review 2009…. Value Reigns
Review of quant strategies shows momentum out of favor in 2009, with value factors working best.
Testing The Treasury Bond Yield
The longer term data does suggest that at current interest rate levels, investors can expect sub-par returns over the next 1, 3, and five year timeframes— and we use the term “sub-par” quite literally.
U.S. Stocks: What If The New Decade Is “Normal”?
While most are content to make annual predictions at this time, leave it to Doug Ramsey to bite off an even bigger piece…predicting the next DECADE.
Stock Market
- Our Outlook For 2019 (...2010 To Come Later)
- Asset Allocation: Still Heavy In Equities
- 2009: Not Monotony, But Close
- 2009 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
- Equity Fund Flow Trends In 2009… Emerging Markets Is Where It’s At
- A Global Perspective On Investor Preference For Top-Line Growth Or Bottom-Line Growth
- Quant Review 2009…. Value Reigns
- Large Cap Versus Small Cap: Performance Parity 1979 To Date