Green Book February 2010
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Featured Articles
A Global Perspective: Investor Preference For Earnings And Revenue Risks
A look at earnings and revenue risk to see how the market reveals its preference.
Despite January, Big Picture Still Bullish
Don’t think we’ve seen a cyclical top, because that would mean everything essentially topped at the same time. Breadth has yet to peak in this cycle and that is one reason we expect the market to move higher over the near term.
Insight Into The Cyclicality Of Equity Valuations
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric Bjorgen looks at the cyclical nature of P/E ratios. The normalized P/E ratio follows an expansion/contraction cycle that has been repeated five times since 1926, but the interesting thing is that the cycles have lengthened significantly over time.
Liquidity Drying Up… Some Trends Worth Watching
Our broad read of the stock market is still bullish, but we can’t help noticing that the concerted effort to supercharge the economy via liquidity may be losing some steam.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
Jim Floyd’s analysis of the interest costs facing the U.S. due to the soaring budget deficits.
Rising Inflation: Not Always Bad For Stocks… Especially Small Caps
A look at stock performance in various inflation environments would seem to predict below average performance in 2009, but threat of monetary debasement inflation in 2011 and beyond could set the stage for poor performance.
The “New Normal”: Yes, They Ring A Bell At The Bottom
The “New Normal”, just like the late 1990’s “New Era”, will likely fade from popular jargon over time. Counter to “New Normal” reasoning, the Consumer Discretionary sector has demonstrated remarkable performance.
Weak Dollar Could Continue To Contribute To Higher Commodity Prices
U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher, like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered. The weak U.S. dollar helped, and recent rally might not last.
What Keeps Us Up At Night
We consider it incredible that most of the leading economic indicators have staged such traditional V-shaped rebounds with virtually no boost from the housing sector.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Despite January, Big Picture Still Bullish
- The “New Normal”: Yes, They Ring A Bell At The Bottom
- What Keeps Us Up At Night
- Rising Inflation: Not Always Bad For Stocks… Especially Small Caps
- Liquidity Drying Up… Some Trends Worth Watching
- A Global Perspective: Investor Preference For Earnings And Revenue Risks
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
A Global Perspective: Investor Preference For Earnings And Revenue Risks
A look at earnings and revenue risk to see how the market reveals its preference.
Despite January, Big Picture Still Bullish
Don’t think we’ve seen a cyclical top, because that would mean everything essentially topped at the same time. Breadth has yet to peak in this cycle and that is one reason we expect the market to move higher over the near term.
Insight Into The Cyclicality Of Equity Valuations
In this month’s “Of Special Interest”, Eric Bjorgen looks at the cyclical nature of P/E ratios. The normalized P/E ratio follows an expansion/contraction cycle that has been repeated five times since 1926, but the interesting thing is that the cycles have lengthened significantly over time.
Liquidity Drying Up… Some Trends Worth Watching
Our broad read of the stock market is still bullish, but we can’t help noticing that the concerted effort to supercharge the economy via liquidity may be losing some steam.
Longer Term Concerns About U.S. Debt And Deficit
Jim Floyd’s analysis of the interest costs facing the U.S. due to the soaring budget deficits.
Rising Inflation: Not Always Bad For Stocks… Especially Small Caps
A look at stock performance in various inflation environments would seem to predict below average performance in 2009, but threat of monetary debasement inflation in 2011 and beyond could set the stage for poor performance.
The “New Normal”: Yes, They Ring A Bell At The Bottom
The “New Normal”, just like the late 1990’s “New Era”, will likely fade from popular jargon over time. Counter to “New Normal” reasoning, the Consumer Discretionary sector has demonstrated remarkable performance.
Weak Dollar Could Continue To Contribute To Higher Commodity Prices
U.S. commodity prices are again trending higher, like they did in 2002, as the U.S. economy recovered. The weak U.S. dollar helped, and recent rally might not last.
What Keeps Us Up At Night
We consider it incredible that most of the leading economic indicators have staged such traditional V-shaped rebounds with virtually no boost from the housing sector.
Stock Market
- Despite January, Big Picture Still Bullish
- The “New Normal”: Yes, They Ring A Bell At The Bottom
- What Keeps Us Up At Night
- Rising Inflation: Not Always Bad For Stocks… Especially Small Caps
- Liquidity Drying Up… Some Trends Worth Watching
- A Global Perspective: Investor Preference For Earnings And Revenue Risks