Green Book December 2010
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Featured Articles
A “Quality” Opportunity?
Low quality stocks led out of the past bear market, as typically occurs. Despite being the clear winners from the 2009 lows, it looks like the lower quality stocks can continue to outperform given current valuations and momentum.
Bonds Versus Stocks… A Simple Comparison That Shows There Is No Comparison
Stocks win the bonds versus stocks comparison.
Deal Flow On The Comeback Trail
Offerings are beginning to pick up. While not even near the levels of excess, the trend bears watching. The initial surge in offerings is typically indicative of a rising market.
Deciphering The Real Message In The Employment Figures
It’s a big mistake to react to the headline reports of employment, and an even bigger mistake to make investment decisions based on them.
Inflation Acceleration In 2011
We see the perceived deflation threat developing into commodity-based inflationary fears.
Is The Bond Bubble Beginning To Deflate?
The bond bubble could be deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for expected rising inflation and the U.S. mountain of debt.
It’s Been Better Than It’s “Felt”
The latest bull market has now essentially matched the returns for all bull market recoveries dating back to 1900. Remarkably, it has accomplished this in only half the normal time frame.
Market Action Signals Further Room To The Upside
Factor analysis shows that Momentum continued to be effective in November. Also, aggressive equity sectors have been outperforming the defensive ones. Both of these factors bode well for a continuation of the bull market.
Playing The Bounce Update
It does not look like a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Many fund managers still have substantial tax loss carry forwards they can use to offset this year’s gains.
Railroads On Track—New Group Added To Select Industries
A new Select Industries Portfolio holding in Railroad group was established.
The Charts Of The Year
This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a look back at and updates some our favorite charts from 2010.
The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On Style Factors
Chun Wang examines QE I & II in Japan, along with the initial QE in the U.S., to see how various quantitative factors have reacted in the past. While some factors may prove effective, the main difference between these past QE experience and the latest round is the macro conditions of the market.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- It’s Been Better Than It’s “Felt”
- A “Quality” Opportunity?
- Deciphering The Real Message In The Employment Figures
- Deal Flow On The Comeback Trail
- Playing The Bounce Update
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Bonds Versus Stocks… A Simple Comparison That Shows There Is No Comparison
- Is The Bond Bubble Beginning To Deflate?
Equity Strategies
Quant
Inflation Watch
A “Quality” Opportunity?
Low quality stocks led out of the past bear market, as typically occurs. Despite being the clear winners from the 2009 lows, it looks like the lower quality stocks can continue to outperform given current valuations and momentum.
Bonds Versus Stocks… A Simple Comparison That Shows There Is No Comparison
Stocks win the bonds versus stocks comparison.
Deal Flow On The Comeback Trail
Offerings are beginning to pick up. While not even near the levels of excess, the trend bears watching. The initial surge in offerings is typically indicative of a rising market.
Deciphering The Real Message In The Employment Figures
It’s a big mistake to react to the headline reports of employment, and an even bigger mistake to make investment decisions based on them.
Inflation Acceleration In 2011
We see the perceived deflation threat developing into commodity-based inflationary fears.
Is The Bond Bubble Beginning To Deflate?
The bond bubble could be deflating, as investors demand higher yields to compensate for expected rising inflation and the U.S. mountain of debt.
It’s Been Better Than It’s “Felt”
The latest bull market has now essentially matched the returns for all bull market recoveries dating back to 1900. Remarkably, it has accomplished this in only half the normal time frame.
Market Action Signals Further Room To The Upside
Factor analysis shows that Momentum continued to be effective in November. Also, aggressive equity sectors have been outperforming the defensive ones. Both of these factors bode well for a continuation of the bull market.
Playing The Bounce Update
It does not look like a very good “Playing The Bounce” year. Many fund managers still have substantial tax loss carry forwards they can use to offset this year’s gains.
Railroads On Track—New Group Added To Select Industries
A new Select Industries Portfolio holding in Railroad group was established.
The Charts Of The Year
This month’s “Of Special Interest” takes a look back at and updates some our favorite charts from 2010.
The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On Style Factors
Chun Wang examines QE I & II in Japan, along with the initial QE in the U.S., to see how various quantitative factors have reacted in the past. While some factors may prove effective, the main difference between these past QE experience and the latest round is the macro conditions of the market.
Stock Market
- It’s Been Better Than It’s “Felt”
- A “Quality” Opportunity?
- Deciphering The Real Message In The Employment Figures
- Deal Flow On The Comeback Trail
- Playing The Bounce Update
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
- Bonds Versus Stocks… A Simple Comparison That Shows There Is No Comparison
- Is The Bond Bubble Beginning To Deflate?