Green Book November 2009
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter
Leuthold Advisors Newsletter subscriptions include a no-obligation 14-day trial. Cancel at any time before the 14 days are over and you will not be billed.
Subscribe nowLogin
For full access, please enter your credentials.
Featured Articles
Countering The Consensus Gloom
There’s an overwhelming consensus that the U.S. economy has slipped into a long-term phase of declining growth in real GDP and chronically higher unemployment. Here’s a dissenting opinion from a client, along with Steve Leuthold’s response.
Decomposing ROE: A Global Perspective
Return On Equity (ROE) has been performing well as a quality factor on a global basis over the last six to twelve months.
Introducing Chun Wang
And now our final new analyst introduction (for the time being) of Chun Wang.
Lemmings Atop The Fixed Income Cliff....And How This Could Play Out Well For Equities
Get out in front of the lemmings. We expect to ultimately see bond funds reverse now that performance has been lagging the stock market. But where will the money go? Our best guess is that it flows to Emerging Country Equities….once again chasing strong performance.
Market Liquidity: Down But Not Out
What will be one of the key performance drivers for the second half of the bull market? The short answer is the same catalyst that brought the stock market down during the latter half of the last bear market: Liquidity.
Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months
By year end 2009, we expect the twelve month PPI to be back up in mildly inflationary territory.
New Select Industries Position: Computer And Electronics Retail
In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Computer & Electronics Retail (4.1% of assets).
New Select Industries Position: Industrial Conglomerates
In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Industrial Conglomerates (6.6% of equity assets).
New Select Industries Position: Managed Health Care
In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Managed Health Care (5.2% of assets).
Small Cap Appeal Is Fading
After already rallying substantially from the March lows, it will be tougher for small caps to continue their outperformance.
Valuation Constraints?
There is a potential valuation ceiling confronting U.S. stocks. 2002 S&P valuation lows may be the point that this cyclical bull market tops out.
Was It “Easy Money” All Along?
The “easy money”—at least psychologically— may still be ahead for some. Money continues to move out of U.S. equity mutual funds, and there is still skepticism about the stock market.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Was It “Easy Money” All Along?
- Valuation Constraints?
- Market Liquidity: Down But Not Out
- Decomposing ROE: A Global Perspective
- Introducing Chun Wang
- Countering The Consensus Gloom
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Position: Industrial Conglomerates
- New Select Industries Position: Computer And Electronics Retail
- New Select Industries Position: Managed Health Care
Inflation Watch
Countering The Consensus Gloom
There’s an overwhelming consensus that the U.S. economy has slipped into a long-term phase of declining growth in real GDP and chronically higher unemployment. Here’s a dissenting opinion from a client, along with Steve Leuthold’s response.
Decomposing ROE: A Global Perspective
Return On Equity (ROE) has been performing well as a quality factor on a global basis over the last six to twelve months.
Introducing Chun Wang
And now our final new analyst introduction (for the time being) of Chun Wang.
Lemmings Atop The Fixed Income Cliff....And How This Could Play Out Well For Equities
Get out in front of the lemmings. We expect to ultimately see bond funds reverse now that performance has been lagging the stock market. But where will the money go? Our best guess is that it flows to Emerging Country Equities….once again chasing strong performance.
Market Liquidity: Down But Not Out
What will be one of the key performance drivers for the second half of the bull market? The short answer is the same catalyst that brought the stock market down during the latter half of the last bear market: Liquidity.
Mild Inflation Next Twelve Months
By year end 2009, we expect the twelve month PPI to be back up in mildly inflationary territory.
New Select Industries Position: Computer And Electronics Retail
In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Computer & Electronics Retail (4.1% of assets).
New Select Industries Position: Industrial Conglomerates
In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Industrial Conglomerates (6.6% of equity assets).
New Select Industries Position: Managed Health Care
In late October, the Select Industries Portfolio added new positions in Managed Health Care (5.2% of assets).
Small Cap Appeal Is Fading
After already rallying substantially from the March lows, it will be tougher for small caps to continue their outperformance.
Valuation Constraints?
There is a potential valuation ceiling confronting U.S. stocks. 2002 S&P valuation lows may be the point that this cyclical bull market tops out.
Was It “Easy Money” All Along?
The “easy money”—at least psychologically— may still be ahead for some. Money continues to move out of U.S. equity mutual funds, and there is still skepticism about the stock market.
Stock Market
- Was It “Easy Money” All Along?
- Valuation Constraints?
- Market Liquidity: Down But Not Out
- Decomposing ROE: A Global Perspective
- Introducing Chun Wang
- Countering The Consensus Gloom
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- New Select Industries Position: Industrial Conglomerates
- New Select Industries Position: Computer And Electronics Retail
- New Select Industries Position: Managed Health Care