Green Book May 2009
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Featured Articles
China Equity Market: An Accelerating Supply of A Shares
A look at the perils with Chinese A Shares. Concern has been raised about China A Shares because they are seeing significant increases in their share float, due to government releasing restricted shares to the public.
Fall To Deflationary Territory Should Be Short Lived
As first half of 2009 readings compare against inflationary 2008 first half readings, the twelve month rate will sink further into deflationary territory, probably to around –6%. But the second half of 2009 will be a different story, as commodity prices could continue to rebound or at least stabilize (anticipating economic recovery).
Generational Perspectives On Stock Vs. Bond Returns
So, over the long run, stocks are supposed to provide better returns than bonds as compensation for taking greater risk. Well the last 20, 30, and 40 year periods show that bond and stock returns have been at the smallest performance spreads ever. In some cases, bonds actually produced better returns. It’s pretty depressing huh?
Is Another Major Low Lurking Beyond 2009?
Several independent methods are presented that seem to triangulate on the years 2012 and 2013 as candidates for another significant stock market low - - maybe the final low of a secular bear market which began in 2000?
New Select Industries Position: Oil & Gas Drillers
Establishing new portfolio holding in Oil & Gas Drillers, which brings exposure up near market weight in Energy sector.
The Rally Is For Real (And For Earl)
Despite the recent rally, the best two month move since 1933, investors migrating back to bearish camp. This is the best defined “wall of worry” we have seen in over a decade, and one that will provide more fuel for what we believe is a cyclical bull market.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- The Rally Is For Real (And For Earl)
- Generational Perspectives On Stock Vs. Bond Returns
- China Equity Market: An Accelerating Supply of A Shares
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
China Equity Market: An Accelerating Supply of A Shares
A look at the perils with Chinese A Shares. Concern has been raised about China A Shares because they are seeing significant increases in their share float, due to government releasing restricted shares to the public.
Fall To Deflationary Territory Should Be Short Lived
As first half of 2009 readings compare against inflationary 2008 first half readings, the twelve month rate will sink further into deflationary territory, probably to around –6%. But the second half of 2009 will be a different story, as commodity prices could continue to rebound or at least stabilize (anticipating economic recovery).
Generational Perspectives On Stock Vs. Bond Returns
So, over the long run, stocks are supposed to provide better returns than bonds as compensation for taking greater risk. Well the last 20, 30, and 40 year periods show that bond and stock returns have been at the smallest performance spreads ever. In some cases, bonds actually produced better returns. It’s pretty depressing huh?
Is Another Major Low Lurking Beyond 2009?
Several independent methods are presented that seem to triangulate on the years 2012 and 2013 as candidates for another significant stock market low - - maybe the final low of a secular bear market which began in 2000?
New Select Industries Position: Oil & Gas Drillers
Establishing new portfolio holding in Oil & Gas Drillers, which brings exposure up near market weight in Energy sector.
The Rally Is For Real (And For Earl)
Despite the recent rally, the best two month move since 1933, investors migrating back to bearish camp. This is the best defined “wall of worry” we have seen in over a decade, and one that will provide more fuel for what we believe is a cyclical bull market.
Stock Market
- The Rally Is For Real (And For Earl)
- Generational Perspectives On Stock Vs. Bond Returns
- China Equity Market: An Accelerating Supply of A Shares