Green Book March 2009
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Featured Articles
"Spreading" The Message
Credit spreads have blown out to levels not seen since the 1930’s. What are the implications for the market?
Back To A Less Aggressive Equity Exposure
The “Fail-Safe” was triggered by the poor market action at the end of February, and we are moving towards a 50% net equity exposure. Caution seems prudent despite the Major Trend Index remaining in positive territory.
Cyclicals: Getting All The Respect Of Financials
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index: a group we didn’t recognize as a bubble two years ago (and we suspect we’re not the only ones), but one that meets the minimum requirement for “membership” by declining at least 70% from its high.
Disecting The Capital Indices
Identifying and comparing important characteristics of the broad sectors of the S&P 500.
Do You Have Appropriate China Exposure?
A brief description of the differences among these Chinese market segments and comparisons of major funds offering exposure to the Chinese stock market.
Fall Into Deflationary Territory Should Be Short Lived
Compared against very deflationary readings in the second half of 2008, PPI could finish 2009 up +2.0%. The worst of the commodity price downdraft should be behind us.
Fed Policy And The Confidence Trap
Fed policy in the current crisis has been far more aggressive than at a comparable point in either the Great Depression or in Japan’s “Lost Decade.”
Graham Model Revisited
Last month, using Ben Graham's model, we found the U.S. market to be undervalued for the first time in about 50 years. Unfortunately, the values have become even more compelling over the past five weeks.
Is There Any Perspective For Today’s Stock Market?
Eric Bjorgen searches for something beyond The Great Depression or 1990’s Japan. See what he found in this month’s Of Special Interest.
Seeking "Normality" In Abnormal Times
Extrapolate the current state of affairs into the future at your own risk - “normalcy” is bound to return at some point.
Stimulus Spending Beneficiaries
Five groups we think are poised to benefit form the stimulus legislation.
Stocks Now Lag Bonds Since 1987 Bottom
The recent dismal stock market sell off, combined with flight to safety of U.S. Treasuries, has vaulted bond returns well above their historical norms while stock returns are well below their historical norms.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Back To A Less Aggressive Equity Exposure
- Seeking "Normality" In Abnormal Times
- Fed Policy And The Confidence Trap
- Graham Model Revisited
- Stocks Now Lag Bonds Since 1987 Bottom
- Stimulus Spending Beneficiaries
- Cyclicals: Getting All The Respect Of Financials
- Disecting The Capital Indices
- Do You Have Appropriate China Exposure?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Inflation Watch
"Spreading" The Message
Credit spreads have blown out to levels not seen since the 1930’s. What are the implications for the market?
Back To A Less Aggressive Equity Exposure
The “Fail-Safe” was triggered by the poor market action at the end of February, and we are moving towards a 50% net equity exposure. Caution seems prudent despite the Major Trend Index remaining in positive territory.
Cyclicals: Getting All The Respect Of Financials
The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index: a group we didn’t recognize as a bubble two years ago (and we suspect we’re not the only ones), but one that meets the minimum requirement for “membership” by declining at least 70% from its high.
Disecting The Capital Indices
Identifying and comparing important characteristics of the broad sectors of the S&P 500.
Do You Have Appropriate China Exposure?
A brief description of the differences among these Chinese market segments and comparisons of major funds offering exposure to the Chinese stock market.
Fall Into Deflationary Territory Should Be Short Lived
Compared against very deflationary readings in the second half of 2008, PPI could finish 2009 up +2.0%. The worst of the commodity price downdraft should be behind us.
Fed Policy And The Confidence Trap
Fed policy in the current crisis has been far more aggressive than at a comparable point in either the Great Depression or in Japan’s “Lost Decade.”
Graham Model Revisited
Last month, using Ben Graham's model, we found the U.S. market to be undervalued for the first time in about 50 years. Unfortunately, the values have become even more compelling over the past five weeks.
Is There Any Perspective For Today’s Stock Market?
Eric Bjorgen searches for something beyond The Great Depression or 1990’s Japan. See what he found in this month’s Of Special Interest.
Seeking "Normality" In Abnormal Times
Extrapolate the current state of affairs into the future at your own risk - “normalcy” is bound to return at some point.
Stimulus Spending Beneficiaries
Five groups we think are poised to benefit form the stimulus legislation.
Stocks Now Lag Bonds Since 1987 Bottom
The recent dismal stock market sell off, combined with flight to safety of U.S. Treasuries, has vaulted bond returns well above their historical norms while stock returns are well below their historical norms.
Stock Market
- Back To A Less Aggressive Equity Exposure
- Seeking "Normality" In Abnormal Times
- Fed Policy And The Confidence Trap
- Graham Model Revisited
- Stocks Now Lag Bonds Since 1987 Bottom
- Stimulus Spending Beneficiaries
- Cyclicals: Getting All The Respect Of Financials
- Disecting The Capital Indices
- Do You Have Appropriate China Exposure?