Green Book January 2009
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Featured Articles
2008 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
Even with perfect hindsight, an investor who purchased the 20 best performing groups in 2008 would have generated a 13% loss for the year. The 20 worst performing groups had an average loss of 62.5%.
Bought The Airlines...Ready For Another Profitable Round Trip
Establishing new Select Industries equity portfolio holding in Airlines.
December Market Action
2008 is over. We expect 2009 to be better since worst-case scenarios now seem less likely to play out.
Deflation… What If? (Part II)
Once again, this month’s “Of Special Interest” examines deflation but employs a longer time horizon. We also contrast the deflationary environment in Japan versus current U.S. conditions.
Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce At Year End After Plunge In October
“Playing The Bounce” strategy produced impressive gains in December, but results are still negative from October introduction.
Recent CPI and PPI Readings Declined By Largest Percentages In Over 60 Years
Currently declining energy and other commodity prices are producing some significant “down” months for CPI and PPI.
Struck Down By The "Killer Wave"
Last January we noted the appearance of a rare and dangerous technical configuration in the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Some analysts have described this topping pattern as the “Killer Wave”, and did it ever live up to that nickname in 2008.
The January Effect: Return To The Good Old Days?
“January Effect” has lost some of its luster in recent years, but historically it has produced very strong returns following big down years.
Tracking Cash...Who Has It, And Who Doesn’t
Still a mountain of cash available (MZM data), which could find its way into the stock market. Don’t confuse scarcity of buyers with scarcity of liquidity.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- December Market Action
- The January Effect: Return To The Good Old Days?
- Tracking Cash...Who Has It, And Who Doesn’t
- 2008 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
- Struck Down By The "Killer Wave"
- Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce At Year End After Plunge In October
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
Inflation Watch
2008 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
Even with perfect hindsight, an investor who purchased the 20 best performing groups in 2008 would have generated a 13% loss for the year. The 20 worst performing groups had an average loss of 62.5%.
Bought The Airlines...Ready For Another Profitable Round Trip
Establishing new Select Industries equity portfolio holding in Airlines.
December Market Action
2008 is over. We expect 2009 to be better since worst-case scenarios now seem less likely to play out.
Deflation… What If? (Part II)
Once again, this month’s “Of Special Interest” examines deflation but employs a longer time horizon. We also contrast the deflationary environment in Japan versus current U.S. conditions.
Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce At Year End After Plunge In October
“Playing The Bounce” strategy produced impressive gains in December, but results are still negative from October introduction.
Recent CPI and PPI Readings Declined By Largest Percentages In Over 60 Years
Currently declining energy and other commodity prices are producing some significant “down” months for CPI and PPI.
Struck Down By The "Killer Wave"
Last January we noted the appearance of a rare and dangerous technical configuration in the Dow Jones Industrials Average. Some analysts have described this topping pattern as the “Killer Wave”, and did it ever live up to that nickname in 2008.
The January Effect: Return To The Good Old Days?
“January Effect” has lost some of its luster in recent years, but historically it has produced very strong returns following big down years.
Tracking Cash...Who Has It, And Who Doesn’t
Still a mountain of cash available (MZM data), which could find its way into the stock market. Don’t confuse scarcity of buyers with scarcity of liquidity.
Stock Market
- December Market Action
- The January Effect: Return To The Good Old Days?
- Tracking Cash...Who Has It, And Who Doesn’t
- 2008 Dreams And Nightmares...A Look Back At What Might Have Been
- Struck Down By The "Killer Wave"
- Playing The Bounce Update: Big Bounce At Year End After Plunge In October